世界经济论坛-首席经济学家展望：2025年5月（英）

Chief Economists OutlookCentre for the New Economy and SocietyMay 20252Chief Economists OutlookDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.© 2025 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.3Chief Economists OutlookChief Economists OutlookMay 2025This briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society.It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events. The survey featured in this briefing was conducted from 3-17 April 2025.4Chief Economists OutlookContentsExecutive summary __________________________________________________________ 51. A world transformed ______________________________________________________ 7Volatility weighs on the economic outlook _____________________________________ 7Regional challenges ______________________________________________________ 112. An age of uncertainty ____________________________________________________ 21Policy upheaval and coordination risks _______________________________________ 213. AI unleashed ____________________________________________________________ 27The age of disruption _____________________________________________________ 27Adoption and adaptation __________________________________________________ 31References _________________________________________________________________ 35Contributors _______________________________________________________________ 42Acknowledgements _________________________________________________________ 43Cover: Unsplash5Chief Economists OutlookExecutive summaryThe May 2025 edition of the Chief Economists Outlook is published at a time of extraordinary volatility and uncertainty. Since the beginning of the year, the global economic outlook has darkened. In the World Economic Forum’s latest survey of chief economists, conducted in the first half of April at the height of recent policy developments, there was unanimity that the condition of the global economy is set to weaken considerably. Notably, 79% of chief economists surveyed viewed dramatic changes to US policy as part of a long-term structural shift r