世界银行-东亚和太平洋：2025年春季会议发展中国家宏观贫困展望国别分析和预测（英）

MMMPPOOO04/2025East Asia and the PacificCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldCountry-by-country Analysis and Projections for the Developing WorldMACRO POVERTYOUTLOOKPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized© 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Macro Poverty Outlook / April 2025Macro Poverty Outlook / April 20251East Asia and the PacificCambodia Central Pacific Islands China Fiji Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Mongolia Myanmar North Pacific Islands Papua New Guinea Philippines Solomon Islands South Pacific Islands Thailand Timor-Leste Viet NamCAMBODIACambodia's real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 4.0percent in 2025 amid global trade policy shifts, heighteneduncertainty and slower global growth. While poverty is ex-pected to decline gradually, the pace of poverty reductionmay be constrained by rising inflation, uneven economicperformance across sectors, and heightened vulnerabilitiesin labor-intensive export industries.Key conditions and challengesAs a small open economy with exports accounting for almost 60percent of GDP, Cambodia is particularly exposed to the ongo-ing shifts in global trade policies and rising uncertainty in theexternal environment. The US is Cambodia’s largest export des-tination, accounting for 39 percent of total exports and 29 per-cent of GDP, nearly double the share of exports going to ASEANat 20 percent and the EU27 at 17 percent, while China accountsfor 47 percent of imports and half of FDI. The domestic value-added embedded in exports to the US amounts to 8 percent ofGDP—compared to 6 percent of GDP to Europe and 3 percentto China. The largest exposure by sector is in travel goods, gar-ments, and footwear