英文【高盛】美元走弱和收益率曲线变陡支持向澳元信贷进行多元化投资

Kenneth Ho +852-2978-7468 | kenneth.ho@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Sandra Yeung +852-2978-0784 | sandra.yeung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.tensions back to macro data, eroding “US exceptionalism” is likely to be a continuing theme for asset markets. Whilst we believe shifts away from Dollar assets from Asia credit investors is a slow moving train, diversification into broader asset classes is likely to accelerate. AUD credit will be in focus. We believe the spread npickup between AUD and USD financials is attractive, with AUD A rated financial spreads offering an 84bps pickup over Asia USD A rated financial. We provide a list of the 15 widest A-rated financial AUD-denominated credits in the ICE-BAML Australia Corporate Index. Macro backdrop supportive of AUD credits. We nbelieve the macro backdrop augurs well for AUD credit. Our Australia economists expect the RBA to promptly remove the restrictiveness of monetary policy by cutting the cash rate to 3.1%, from 3.85% currently. For the AUD, our FX team expects modest upside vs the Dollar over the very near term.24 May 2025 | 4:54PM HKTAsia Credit Trader Weaker Dollar And Steeper Curves Support Diversification Into AUD CreditsFocus over the past week was squarely on the US Treasury market. Asia credit spreads began the week on a positive note, but sentiment shifted to a more cautious tone midweek as US Treasury yields rose. The rally in UST yields towards the latter part of the week stabilized the market, and Asia credit spreads ended the week moderately wider. With tariff headlines once again dominating news flow, and Dollar weakness and eroding “US exceptionalism” continuing to be important themes, the macro backdrop will likely be the main driver of risk. We expect peaks and troughs to come in Asia spreads, and maintain our preference for a market neutral stance that focuses on carry. In this week’s Asia Credit Trader, we discuss: Revising US Treasuries yield higher. The fundamental nconflict between below-trend growth and above target inflation, diminished scope for near-term policy rate relief, and broader fiscal trajectory suggest the reset higher in longer-term US yields can be sustained. Our rates team revised up year-end 10y UST yield forecast to 4.50% from 4.00% previously. Eroding “US exceptionalism” should speed up ndiversification. As market focus shifts away from tariff Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Summary of the week Focus over the past week was squarely on the US Treasury market. Asia credit spreads began the week on a positive note, and search for yield motives helped to keep spreads tight. Sentiment shifted midweek as US Treasury yields rose, with a notable steepening of the UST curve as 30yr yield rose to above 5% for the first time since Aug 2023. Correlation between US Treasury yi