英文【高盛】酒店-在线旅游代理商2025年第一季度预览收入符合预期，在线旅游代理商利润率有上行空间。关注2025年第二季度指引

China’s travel stocks have bounced back sharply over the past 1-2 weeks following stronger-than-expected Labor Day holiday data (May 7) and signs of US/China trade tension de-escalation as they agree to roll back tariffs (see link to media). We have also received enquiries about upcoming 1Q25 results of the OTA and hotel operators scheduled to announce in late-May. Below we summarize our expectations and also highlights for other travel names that have already reported so far: 1Q25 results announced so far in line with lowered expectations - Among nour travel coverage, the six casino operators (Galaxy, MLCO, SJM, MGM, Wynn, Sands), hotel chains BTG and Jinjiang, duty-free retailer CTGDF, and theme park operator Songcheng have reported. Except for Jinjiang, whose results missed on lower-than-expected margin, most were broadly in line as expectation had generally been reset lower prior to the results: (1) Macau industry EBITDA ticked up +2% qoq (vs. our forecast of flat qoq) helped by stable competitive environment (promotional allowance as % of GGR 17.8% vs. 17.9% in 4Q24) and cost control (industry daily opex -3% to US$20.2mn) even though GGR mix was unfavorable with outpaced growth from lower-margin VIP GGR (+19% vs. -3% for mass/slot); (2) BTG and Jinjiang’s hotel RevPar was soft -5% yoy in 1Q25 as industry data suggest continued weakness in Mar-Apr despite lower base last year amid volatile business travel demand; (3) CTG’s revenue decline narrowed to -11% yoy (from -22%/-19% yoy in 3Q/4Q24) supported by stabilizing per-head DFS spending at both Hainan and at airport stores; and (4) resilient revenue trend by Songcheng (flat yoy) with mixed performance by individual projects. Less scope for hotels/OTA to beat on their top-line given weak RevPar ntrend - As for HTHT and ATAT, we expect generally soft RevPar in 1Q25 (-4%/-7% yoy) vs. company guidance of low-single-digit % (HTHT) and mid-to-high single digit % decline (ATAT), respectively. As in prior quarters, ATAT’s RevPar underperformed, dragged by unfavorable mix shift toward more Simon Cheung, CFA +852-2978-6102 | simon.cheung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Leah Pan +852-2978-6972 | leah.pan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Alpha Wang +852-2978-1984 | alpha.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Dorothy Wong +852-2978-1879 | dorothy.wong@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Herbert Lu +852-2978-0726 | herbert.lu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.China Travel & Leisure Hotel/OTA 1Q25 preview: Revenue in line, margin upside for OTA. Focus on 2Q25 guidance14 May 2025 | 1:18AM HKT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or g