英文【BIS】德菲英引力？比特币、以太币和稳定币跨境流动的实证分析

BIS Working PapersNo 1265 DeFiying gravity? An empirical analysis of cross-border Bitcoin, Ether and stablecoin flows by Raphael Auer, Ulf Lewrick and Jan Paulick Monetary and Economic Department May 2025 JEL classification: F24, F32, F38, G15, G23 Keywords: cryptocurrency, payments, cross-border flows, blockchain, decentralised finance, capital flow management, Bitcoin, Ether, USD Coin, Tether, stablecoins, remittances BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) DeFiying Gravity? An Empirical Analysis ofCross-Border Bitcoin, Ether and Stablecoin Flows∗Raphael Auer†, Ulf Lewrick‡, Jan Paulick§May 2025AbstractWe investigate trends and drivers of cross-border flows of the two major native cryp-toassets (Bitcoin and Ether) and the two major asset-backed stablecoins (Tetherand USD Coin) between 184 countries from 2017 to 2024. These flows are substan-tial, peaking at around USD 2.6 trillion in 2021, with stablecoins accounting forclose to half the volume. The unique bilateral data allow us to estimate the driversof these flows in a gravity framework, and how they differ across different typesof crypto assets.Our findings highlight speculative motives and global fundingconditions as key drivers of native crypto asset flows. Transactional motives playa significant role in cross-border flows for stablecoins and low-value Bitcoin trans-actions, where we further find a strong association with higher costs of traditionalremittances. Geographic barriers play a diminished role compared to traditionalfinancial flows, and capital flow management measures appear ineffective.JEL Codes: F24, F32, F38, G15, G23Keywords:Cryptocurrency; payments; cross-border flows; blockchain; decentralised finance;capital flow management; Bitcoin; Ether; USD Coin; Tether; stablecoins; remittances.∗For helpful comments, we thank Matteo Aquilina, Martin Diehl, Jon Frost, Ronald Heijmans,William Zhang and seminar participants at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), UC SantaBarbara, and at the Bank of Canada and Deutsche Bundesbank international conference on paymentsand securities settlement. We thank Sally Dubach, Maximilian Schrader and Violeta Vuletic for expertassistance with the data. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and notnecessarily those of the BIS or of the Deutsche Bundesbank. The use of any maps in this paper doesnot constitut