彼得森经济研究所-汇聚？对过去40年主流宏观经济学演变的思考（英）

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW | Washington, DC 20036-1903 USA | +1.202.328.9000 | www.piie.comWORKING PAPEROlivier Blanchard, senior fellow and former C. Fred Bergsten SeniorFellow at the PetersonInstitute for InternationalEconomics, is the RobertM. Solow Professor ofEconomics emeritusat the MassachusettsInstitute of Technology(MIT). He was economiccounsellor and director ofthe research departmentat the InternationalMonetary Fund.25-8 Convergence? Thoughts about the Evolution of Mainstream Macroeconomics over the Last 40 YearsOlivier BlanchardMay 2025ABSTRACTThis year marks the 40th anniversary of the NBER Macro Annual Conference, founded in 1986. This paper reviews the evolution of mainstream macroeconomics since then. It presents my views, informed by a survey of a number of researchers who have made important contributions to the field. I develop two main arguments. The first is that, starting from strikingly different positions, there has been substantial convergence, in terms of methodology, architecture, and main mechanisms. Methodology: Explicit micro foundations, explicit treatment of distortions, with, at the same time, an increased willingness to deviate from rational expectations, neoclassical utility and profit maximization. Architecture: The wide acceptance of nominal rigidities as an essential distortion, although with mixed feelings. Mechanisms: The wide nature of the shocks to both the demand and the supply side. The second is that this convergence has been, for the most part, good convergence, i.e., the creation of a generally accepted conceptual and analytical structure, a core to which additional distortions can be added, allowing for discussions and integration of new ideas and evidence, rather than fights about basic methodology. Not everything is right however, with too much emphasis on general equilibrium implications from the start, rather than, first, on partial equilibrium analysis of the phenomenon at hand. The appendix to the paper gives a sample of the views of the members of the survey on each of these arguments.Author’s Note: I thank the economists (too many of them to be able to thank individually) who answered my survey and made comments. In many cases, it led to further interactions and fascinating discussions, which, hopefully, are reflected in this paper.This year marks the 40th anniversary of the NBER Macro Annual Con-ference, founded by Stanley Fischer in 1986. At this occasion, I was askedby the organizers to look back and give my assessment of the evolution ofmainstream macroeconomics over those 40 years. I unwisely accepted.The remarks below reflect my own subjective and rather optimistic views.To get a sense of how the profession feels, however, and how off I might be inmy perceptions, I decided to ask a few questions to some of the researcherswho have played a central role in this evolution. I tried to choose researchersfrom different horizons (although, admittedly, all within the (wide) main-str