英文【高盛】标准普尔500指数褐皮书2025年第一季度电话会议的三个主题关税、消费者和人工智能

Our quarterly S&P 500 Beige Book reviews conference call transcripts to gain a qualitative perspective on key issues facing company managements. This quarter, we highlight three themes from 1Q earnings calls: (1) managements discussed how the recent tariffs affect their businesses; (2) companies discussed the current state of the consumer; and (3) companies continued to discuss the impact of AI on their businesses and further AI investments.David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik.jayachandran@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLCS&P 500 Beige Book 3 themes from 1Q 2025 conference calls: Tariffs, consumers, and AI6 May 2025 | 6:10PM EDT Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. S&P 500 Beige Book Theme 1: Tariffs Tariffs were top of mind during this quarter’s earnings calls as investors looked to understand how companies would deal with tariffs. Trade policy uncertainty has surged alongside the mentions of tariffs this quarter, as 89% percent of companies have mentioned “tariffs” on their earnings call Exhibit 2. Some companies stressed the additional uncertainty created by the 90-day delay of reciprocal tariffs (EMN, WST), while others reassured investors that the impact on their company is limited (FE, POOL). Many companies discussed various strategies to deal with tariffs ranging from supply chain actions (GLW, XEL, OTIS) to passing on the cost to consumers (GE, LII, ALLE, JBL, IR). 28% of S&P 500 companies that have reported 1Q results have quantified the impact of tariffs on their business. GS economists expect the tariff rate to increase to 19pp this year. Since April 2, a basket of tariff-exposed companies (GS24TRFS) has lagged the equal-weight S&P 500 by 2 pp and a basket of stocks that with China supply chains (GSXUCSUP) has underperformed by 3 pp. Select examples: ALLE, AOS, CL, EMN, FE, FFIV, FSLR, FTV, GE, GLW, HAS, HON, IR, JBL, KHC, LII, MRK, OTIS, PFE, PG, POOL, WST, XEL, XYL, ZBRA Theme 2: The consumer Company commentary on 1Q earnings calls has reflected increasingly negative sentiment regarding the state of the consumer. Hard economic data have not shown any signs of a significant growth slowdown in the past couple weeks. However, our economists have noted that there is often a delay before economic shocks are reflected in hard activity data. In contrast, the soft economic data have weakened: As an example, Exhibit 1: 89% of S&P 500 companies have discussed tariffs on earnings calls this q