欧洲央行-抵押贷款再融资与边际消费倾向（英）

Working Paper Series Mortgage refinancing and the marginal propensity to consume Simone Pesce, Liang Zhang Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3051 AbstractThis paper investigates the role of mortgage refinancing in shaping the estimates ofmarginal propensity to consume (MPC) and its implications for fiscal policy. Using U.S.household data, we find that MPCs decrease during the year of mortgage refinancing andstabilize afterwards, particularly among households with lower liquid assets, higher debt-to-income ratios, and valuable illiquid assets. The empirical evidence suggests that refi-nancing provides extra liquidity, reducing MPCs. We leverage on a partial equilibriummodel to quantitatively assess these effects and to explore the role of home-equity extrac-tions for fiscal policy. Our findings highlight a new dimension for the efficacy of cashtransfers: targeted programs that consider higher MPCs of no-refinancers generate savingsbetween 4 and 12% compared to non-targeted programs. These estimates imply approxi-mately $30 billions in potential savings under the CARES Act of March 2020.JEL Codes: E21, E62, G21, G51, H31Keywords: Mortgage Refinance, Households Heterogeneity, Marginal Propensity to Con-sume, Fiscal Transfers, Housing, Fiscal Policy.ECB Working Paper Series No 3051 1Non-technical SummaryWe study how mortgage refinancing influences household consumption behavior, focusing onthe marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and its implications for fiscal policy. Mortgagerefinancing enables households to convert illiquid housing wealth into liquid assets, offeringa buffer during periods of financial stress. Our work builds on the growing literature on MPCheterogeneity, including the work of Kaplan et al. (2014), which emphasizes the role of liquidityconstraints. We extend this literature by identifying how refinancing generates a specific formof heterogeneity that interacts with fiscal policy.Using microdata from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) covering U.S. house-holds from 1999 to 2021, we estimate MPCs in response to transitory income shocks, condi-tioning on the timing of refinancing. Our methodology employs a two-stage instrumental vari-able approach based on Blundell et al. (2008). We unveil that refinancing significantly reducesMPCs, both in the year of refinancing and in subsequent periods, diminishing the effectivenessof fiscal stimulus measures, particularly during economic downturns. We find that refinancinghouseholds typically hold lower liquid assets, face higher debt-to-income ratios, and possessmore illiquid wealth than non-refinancers. These traits make their consumption less responsiveto changes in income, even when faced with transitory shocks.To link these findings to fiscal policy design, we replicate the results of Chen et al. (2020)using U.S. mortgage data from Fannie Mae.