英文【摩根大通】盘点：2025年5月7日澳大利亚消费者入门 - JB Hi-Fi、西农集团、Ampol、建筑批准、家庭支出

Asia Pacific Equity Research07 May 2025J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comAustralian Consumer SectorBryan Raymond AC(61-2) 9003-6750bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.comChristina Kim(61-2) 9003-7082christina.kim@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia LimitedKey themes we are exploring today: •JB Hi-Fi 3Q25 result highlights a sequential slowdown into Feb/Mar. JB Hi-Fi’s 3Q25 sales update missed our expectations but remains solid in absolute terms for JB Hi-Fi Aust and The Good Guys. The focus will be on the slowdown vs. the January trading update for both businesses. JB Hi-Fi Aust delivered +6.0% LFL sales growth (vs. +7.1% Jan trading update and +7.2% JPMe) and The Good Guys at +4.1% (vs. +6.0% Jan trading update and JPMe +6.0%). Following a strong share price rally which has pushed the PERel to an 11% premium vs. the broad industrials, the market is likely to be disappointed with a sequential slowdown from January to February/March. We note however that February and March are relatively quiet months for the electronics category, and trends should not be extrapolated given the lack of sale events and shift in promotional activity to Black Friday, Boxing Day and End Of Financial Year sale events. Interestingly, CAGR growth vs. 2019 held up, with JB Hi-Fi Aust improving from +6.4% p.a. in Jan to +6.5% p.a. in Feb/Mar, while TGG improved from +3.6% p.a. in Jan to +4.1% p.a. in Feb/Mar. If these CAGRs persist in 4Q25, this implies LFL sales growth on a YoY basis of +3.0% for JB Hi-Fi Aust and flat growth for TGG.•Wesfarmers expects tariffs to result in lower prices in Australia. Wesfarmers CEO Rob Scott expects US tariffs on China to flow through to lower prices for Kmart and Bunnings: “We may well see that having a deflationary impact on pricing, which will be good for Australians. I believe that our businesses, given the capabilities we have around manufacturing, sourcing, supply chain, more often than not, we will capture more of that benefit than others that are dealing through third parties and wholesalers and distributors.” Scott remains positive on the Australian consumer, which is in “OK shape... I would say the Australian market is quite strong and resilient.” Wesfarmers is a potential direct tariff beneficiary in Australia, with lower sourcing costs for Kmart and Bunnings likely to drive a combination of lower prices resulting in stronger volumes and better gross margins given their existing low price position and sourcing scale. Wesfarmers’ comments indicate most of this benefit will be passed on through lower prices.•Ampol seeing favourable refining trends amidst volatility. Ampol has seen refining margin tailwinds as product cracks improved to ~US$3/bbl in the last few weeks (vs. US$2/bbl in February), while also announcing they have scheduled a meeting with Government to review the FSSP mechanism and are rolling out unmanned sites (U-GO) which is expected to drive EBITDA upside of ~$30m+ run rate by end of 2026. Product crack spread