英文【摩根大通】全球在线外卖

Global Equity Research26 November 2024J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comGlobal Online TakeawayFrom volatility to stability - Bright prospects ahead for the entire sector with M&A activity likely to accelerate. European InternetMarcus Diebel AC(44-20) 7742-4447marcus.diebel@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcUS InternetDoug Anmuth AC(1-212) 622-6571douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCAPAC Telecoms and India TMTAnkur Rudra, CFA AC(65) 6801-3237ankur.rudra@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedChina InternetAlex Yao AC(86 21) 6106 6505alex.yao@jpmorgan.comSAC Registration Number: S1730523020001J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company LimitedCEEMEA ConsumerElena Jouronova, CFA AC(971) 4561-2010elena.jouronova@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcKorea Internet and TelcoStanley Yang AC(82-2) 758-5712stanley.yang@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul BranchASEAN TMTRanjan Sharma, CFA AC(65) 6882-1303ranjan.x.sharma@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedAs we publish the 7th edition of our Global Online Takeaway report, the outlook for the space appears brighter than ever. After a rather tough 2022/23 (driven by a weak consumer, lack of profitability paired with leverage concerns for some names), the fundamentals of the Food Delivery industry have materially improved: Management teams moved away from costly (and less predictable) initiatives such as vouchers and marketing to boost market share and geographical expansion now towards a rigid focus back to basics - profits. Players such as DASH/UBER that deliver DD% top line growth while expanding margins and/or undergo meaningful asset disposals (such as DH/JET) are increasingly rewarded with strong share price performances and we expect further share price outperformance going forward. With the sector now back in investor focus, a key question is at what level profitable Food Delivery operators can actually grow over the next years? In our view, despite continuously weak macro, the sector can still deliver above +15% EBITDA CAGRs in the next few years (for Europe, other regions even higher) given a favorable mix of a) growing online share, b) increasing density of the network, c) the roll-out of new, additional services like grocery and high-margin advertising revenues and also d) order pooling. In addition, we believe M&A will take an even more important role over the next 12-18 months. With our supportive view on the sector overall, we select our names with best risk/reward and for Europe, we prefer Delivery Hero and JET (both OW) over peer DROO (N) given better catalysts. We also like Zomato (OW), Instacart (OW) as well as Coupang, Grab, Meituan, Uber, (all OW) as non-pure plays, while we stay on the sidelines on DoorDash (N) and Jahez (UW).•We provide our annual deep dive into the Global Food Delivery industry and focus on the current discussion points in the space: 1) the level of competition in key markets, wi