世界银行-银行业的转型风险（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11098Just Transition Risks in the Banking SectorPietro CaliceFinance, Competitiveness and Investment Global Department April 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11098The transition to a net-zero economy presents significant social and economic challenges, particularly for industries and regions reliant on high-carbon activities, hence the need for a just transition. This paper examines exposure to just transition risks—a newly introduced category of finan-cial risk defined as social risks driven by climate transition risks—in the Polish banking sector. Using a sector- and place-based methodology, the paper identifies financial exposures to just transition relevant sectors, classified as declining (subject to job losses) or transforming (requiring adaptation to lower-carbon processes). Leveraging granular credit data, the findings show that 17.2 percent of Polish banks’ financing is exposed to just transition relevant sectors, predominantly in transforming sectors like transportation. Regional analysis reveals that 2.7 percent of total just tran-sition relevant sector credit is concentrated in European Union Just Transition Fund–backed regions, where policy support mitigates some risks, but residual social risks may persist. Meanwhile, 9.1 percent of total credit is linked to non–Just Transition Fund regions, where exposure to just transition risks is potentially higher. Although not conclusive, these findings underscore the need for Polish banks to integrate just transition considerations into risk management frameworks—enhancing due diligence and data aggregation capabilities—and engage with affected stakeholders to mitigate legal and reputational risks while supporting a socially equitable climate transition.This paper is a product of the Finance, Competitiveness and Investment Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The author may be contacted at pcalice@world