纽约联储-穷人的取舍，富人的神圣巧合（英）

Tradeoffs for the Poor, Divine Coincidence for the Rich Marco Del Negro | Ibrahima Diagne | Keshav Dogra Pranay Gundam | Donggyu Lee | Brian Pacula NO. 1147 MARCH 2025 Tradeoffs for the Poor, Divine Coincidence for the Rich Marco Del Negro, Ibrahima Diagne, Keshav Dogra, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, and Brian Pacula Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 1147 March 2025 https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1147 Abstract We use an estimated medium-scale HANK model to investigate how the tradeoff between stabilizing inflation and consumption volatility varies for households with different levels of wealth. Consumption for the rich is mostly affected by demand shocks via their exposure to highly procyclical profits—for them, stabilizing consumption and inflation coincide. The poor are more vulnerable to supply shocks, hence aggressively stabilizing inflation is costly in terms of their consumption volatility. While they dislike inflation because it erodes real wages, they are hurt even more by an aggressive monetary policy response to inflation, which reduces real wages further while increasing unemployment. JEL classification: E12, E31, E52, E58 Key words: inflation, inequality, monetary policy, HANK models _________________ Del Negro: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CEPR (email: marco.delnegro@ny.frb.org). Diagne, Dogra, Gundam, Lee, Pacula: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (emails: ibrahima.diagne@ny.frb.org, keshav.dogra@ny.frb.org, pranay.gundam@ny.frb.org, donggyu.lee@ny.frb.org, brian.pacula@ny.frb.org). The paper was written for the conference “Celebrating Michel Juillard’s Career and 30 Years of Dynare,” held at the Bank of France in February 2025. The authors thank participants to that conference for useful feedback. This paper presents preliminary findings and is being distributed to economists and other interested readers solely to stimulate discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s). To view the authors’ disclosure statements, visit https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1147.html. 11IntroductionMonetary policymakers face a tradeoff between the variability of inflation and real activity: asingle-minded pursuit of inflation stabilization may imply more volatile output and employ-ment, and vice versa. However, both the experience of recent decades and the heterogeneousagent New Keynesian (HANK) literature developed over the same period make it clear thatsuch tradeoffs may be very different for different households. The same shocks which giverise to aggregate fluctuations can have very different effects on the rich and the poor: anincrease in firms’ desired profit margins, for example, besides its effect on inflation, mayincrease profits for the rich