世界银行-唯一的方法是上升吗？：21世纪马来西亚的经济流动性（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10991The Only Way Is Up? Economic Mobility in Malaysia in the 21st CenturyGerton RongenPeter LanjouwPoverty Global Department December 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10991This study documents short-term economic mobility in Malaysia over the first two decades of the twenty-first cen-tury, at the population level and for various subgroups. The findings show broad and steady improvements in well-being, as evidenced by large decreases in chronic poverty and sig-nificant increases in persistent economic security. The study employs a synthetic panel approach based on nationally representative micro-level data for 2004–22, with a refine-ment that allows presenting bootstrap point estimates and standard deviations. In addition, the study investigates sev-eral poverty and vulnerability scenarios, as well as relative mobility. First, the results indicate that chronic poverty has decreased to 2–3 percent of the population. Nevertheless, progress is not uniform: around 15 percent of the popula-tion in rural East Malaysia lives in chronic poverty. Second, the study finds considerable increases in sustained economic security—the extent of improvement, however, depends on the approach and income thresholds that are used to define security. Moreover, ethnic and regional differences in secure status are sizable at higher income class thresholds. The largest differences are of a regional dimension: an individ-ual in urban Peninsular Malaysia is more than three times more likely to live in economic security than someone in rural East Malaysia. Altogether, the study observes upward movement across the board but little evidence of dramatic changes in the relative positions of societal groups.This paper is a product of the Poverty Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at a.g.m.j.rongen@vu.nl.The Only Way Is Up? Economic Mobility in Malaysia in the