美联储-全球（错误）资本配置（英）

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemInternational Finance Discussion PapersISSN 1073-2500 (Print)ISSN 2767-4509 (Online)Number 1399November 2024The Global (Mis)Allocation of CapitalCarol Bertaut, Stephanie E. Curcuru, Ester Faia, Pierre-Olivier GourinchasPlease cite this paper as:Bertaut,Carol,Stephanie E. Curcuru,Ester Faia,and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas(2024).“The Global (Mis)Allocation of Capital,” International Finance DiscussionPapers 1399.Washington:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2024.1399.NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDPs) are preliminary materials circulated to stimu-late discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors anddo not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. Referencesin publications to the International Finance Discussion Papers Series (other than acknowledgement) shouldbe cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Recent IFDPs are availableon the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from theSocial Science Research Network electronic library at www.ssrn.com.The Global (Mis)Allocation of Capital∗Carol BertautFederal Reserve BoardStephanie CurcuruFederal Reserve BoardEster FaiaGoethe University Frankfurt, CEPRPierre-Olivier GourinchasIMF, UC Berkeley & CEPRNovember 22, 2024AbstractThe allocative efficiency of capital flows is one of the oldest and most contentious questions.We answer it by matching cross-border securities holdings reported in the US external statis-tics from 1995 to 2022 with the corresponding firm-level measures of allocative efficiency.We find that US investors tilt their international equity investment toward firms with highMRPK and markups, thereby fostering their potential for growth. Foreign investors tilt theirholdings toward US firms with high productivity and intangible capital. A horse race showsthat productivity is the best predictor of foreign investment in US firms and MRPK forUS investment in foreign firms. Both US and foreign firms that receive more internationalfunding increase spending on intangible capital, and foreign firms also increase tangiblecapital. The results are stronger for more productive firms.JEL Classification: E2, F3, F6.Keywords: productivity, capital allocation, capital flows.∗The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflectingthe views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or the International Monetary Fund, itsexecutive board, or management. We thank Mark Aguiar, Pol Antras, John Campbell, Matias Covarrubias(discussant), Jordi Gali, Nobu Kiyotaki, Philip Lane, Enrique Mendoza, Thomas Philippon (discussant), HeleneRey, Ken Rogoff, Felipe Saffie, Alan Taylor, Adrien Verdelhan, Chris Waller and Tony Zhang for useful commentsand participants at confe