国际清算银行-金融危机对工业增长的影响：过去40年的教训（英）

BIS Working PapersNo 1214 The impact of financial crises on industrial growth: lessons from the last 40 years by Carlos Madeira Monetary and Economic Department September 2024 JEL classification: E44, G01, O10, O16 Keywords: Financial crises, Banking crises, Growth, External finance dependence, Credit frictions BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) The impact of financial crises on industrial growth: lessons fromthe last 40 yearsCarlos Madeira∗September 2024AbstractThis work shows the impact of financial crises across industries and the total manufacturingsector.I find both a direct impact of financial crises on all manufacturing growth and anadditional effect through an external finance dependence channel. Externally dependent industriesexperience lower growth during banking and currency crises, especially in emerging markets anddeveloping economies. Banking, currency and sovereign debt crises cause an average reductionin total manufacturing growth of 2.7%, 6% and 1%, respectively, with the direct effect beingthe most significant component. Finally, I show that macroprudential policies adopted after theGreat Financial Crisis attenuated the fall in growth caused by banking crises.JEL Classification: E44; G01; O10; O16.Keywords: Financial crises; Banking crises; Growth; External finance dependence; Creditfrictions.Ethical Statement: The author has no conflicts of interest to declare.∗BankforInternationalSettlements(BIS),Mexico.Commentsarewelcomeatcarlosmadeira2009@u.northwestern.edu.For comments, I thank Jon Frost, Christian Upper, Carola Müller,Bernardus Doornik, an anonymous referee from the BIS working paper series and seminar participants at the BISAmericas office. The views and conclusions in this paper are exclusively those of the author and do not necessarilyreflect the position of the BIS or the Central Bank of Chile. All errors are my own.11IntroductionFinancial crises are periods in which economic activity falls substantially (Schularick and Taylor2012). The frequency of crises has increased substantially since the end of the Bretton-Woods era(Hoggarth et al. 2002, Bordo and Meissner 2016). This has led many policy makers, particularly inemerging markets and developing economies, to question the advantages of financial liberalizationand globalization (Bordo and Meissner 2016, Rodrik 2021). Banking crises are especially important,because these oft