世界银行-意外需求冲击的收入划分（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10925The Division of Revenues from Unexpected Demand ShocksPaulo BastosNatalia P. MonteiroOdd Rune StraumeDevelopment Economics Development Research GroupSeptember 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10925This paper exploits gaps between observed and recently forecasted Gross Domestic Product growth in export desti-nations to estimate the effects of unexpected demand shocks on worker compensation. Using employer-employee panel data, the paper finds that the revenues from these demand shocks are partly transmitted to workers in the form of higher average wages, especially close to the top of the with-in-firm wage distribution. These wage responses occur both in the form of higher overtime payment and base wage increases. The findings also show that there are significant increases in bonus-related pay in firms managed by high-skilled managers, and the unequal average distribution of unexpected revenues is also mainly driven by wage effects in the same subset of firms. This suggests that the way in which revenues from unexpected demand shocks are transmitted to workers is significantly related to managerial capabilities.This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at pbastos@worldbank.org. The Division of Revenues from Unexpected DemandShocks∗Paulo Bastos†Natalia P. Monteiro‡Odd Rune Straume§Keywords: Unexpected demand shocks, firm performance, wages, rent sharing, managers. JEL Classification: J2, J6, F16, F66∗This paper is financed by National Funds of the FCT – Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technologywithin the project UIDB/03182/2020. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper areentirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank and its affiliatedorganizations, those of the Executive Directors of the Wor