宏观月报2024年2月：中国春节消费升温，3月聚焦两会，海外通胀降温或遇阻

宏观经济 | 2024 年 2 月 29 日 本报告由建银国际证券有限公司撰写。分析师证明及其他重要声明请见报告最后一页。 1 报告摘要  发达国家降通胀进程预计放缓，欧美央行对降息谨慎，日本央行预计将逐步退出宽松：美国经济短期增长动能仍较强劲，通胀可能超预期。市场对联储年内降息的预期调整带动利率走高，符合我们年初预期。地缘政治风险和美国经济坚挺下降通胀进程预计放慢，但美国商业地产的风险使联储难以再次加息。我们维持联储在 3 季度和 4 季度各降息 25 个基点的预测。预计 2 年和 10 年美国债利率 3 月的交易区间为 4.4%-4.8%和 4.0%-4.4%。下半年随降息推进预计小幅回落。欧洲央行也将关注通胀风险，难以短期转向。3 月的薪资谈判将影响日本走出通缩的进程，预计日本央行将逐步退出负利率。  国内春节消费走强，增强复苏信心，聚焦两会：春节长假期间旅游出行及生活服务等活动消费快速增长。节后生产总体保持复苏势头，地产交易二手房回暖快过新房，预示需求有所抬头。关注即将召开的两会，预计将延续中央经济会议精神，突出消费投资并举，产业升级和防范风险等主题，宏观取态保持支持。我们预计 24 年增长目标将保持在 5%左右，财政支出提速。  美元周期回落有利新兴市场资金流，点心债融资预计继续回升：降息预期的减弱推动美国和其他国家的利差走阔，美元指数反弹。但预计降息周期的开启将推动美元下半年下行。新兴市场资金受债市带动回流。随着中国经济持续复苏，人民币汇率有望小幅走高。中美利差持续下预计中资美元债存量仍将收缩，点心债发行年后将持续增加。 下月市场焦点：国际方面，需要关注欧美国家通胀及就业数据，央行议息会议。国内方面，关注经济活动高频数据，及即将召开的两会。 Main points:  With the pace of disinflation expected to slow, the Fed and ECB will stay cautious towards rate cuts. The BoJ is likely to gradually exit from its ultra-easing policy. The US economy is likely to remain solid in the near term. Upside inflation surprises are likely. The markets pared back expectations of rate cuts, driving interest rates higher, in line with our view. Geopolitical uncertainty and US economic resilience are likely to slow the pace of disinflation. However, risks surrounding commercial real estate hinder the Fed’s ability to hike again. We maintain our forecast that the Fed will cut rates by 25bp in each of 3Q and 4Q. Furthermore, we expect 2- and 10-year US Treasury yields will trade in the range of 4.4%-4.8% and 4.0%-4.4% in Mar, respectively, before falling slightly along with rate cuts in 2H. Burdened by similar inflation concerns, the ECB is unlikely to cut rates soon. The shunto wage negotiations in Mar are likely to weigh on the prospects for a Japan exit from deflation. We expect the BoJ to exit ultra-loose monetary policy in Apr.  In China, robust holiday spending boosts recovery confidence. Markets turn their focus to the Two Sessions. Tourism and entertainment spending was strong during the Chinese New Year (CNY), and manufacturing production is picking up post the holiday. Secondhand home sales performed better than sales of new homes during the CNY period, signaling a recovery in demand. We expect the Two Sessions will reiterate the priorities of the Central Economic Work Conference, with a focus on consumption, investment, industrial upgrades, and de-risking. Macro policy is likely to stay supportive. We expect a 2024 growth target of around 5% with accelerating fiscal spending.  The medium term USD downturn supports EM capital inflows. Dim Sum Bond issuance likely to rebound. The pull-back of Fed rate cut expectations has pushed interest rate differentials between the US and other nations wider, leading to a stronger USD . However, we expect the pivot to the interest rate cutting cycle will lead to a weaker USD in 2H 2024. EM capital inflows are picking up, driven by bond markets. As China's economy continues to recover, the RMB is expected to strengthen slightly agai