宏观月报：2023年10月国内复苏持续而化债加快，海外流动性压力未除

宏观经济 | 2023 年 10 月 31 日 本报告由建银国际证券有限公司撰写。分析师证明及其他重要声明请见报告最后一页。 1 报告摘要  预计联储 11 月暂停加息，但维持偏鹰姿态，全球利率继续高位波动。美国 3 季度增长超预期反弹，但我们仍预计增长未来放缓。由於核心通胀降溫，长端利率大幅上行收紧金融条件，以及地缘冲突加剧增添经济前景的担忧，我们预计联储加息周期已到顶，但仍维持鹰派倾向，最快将在明年下半年开始小幅降息。随着货币紧缩影响的持续显现， 預計美国债利率的上行压力稍减，2 年期和 10 年期利率波动区间 4 季度分别在 4.8-5.2%和 4.4%-4.9%。主要风险是地缘冲突扩大带来新的滞涨和加息压力。  国内复苏持续，化债加快：9 月工业增加值和社会零售反弹。预计消费修复，出口逐步改善，地产销售底部趋稳等因素支持弱复苏持续。中央财政支持和化债措施持续有助减轻地方债务风险。短期货币政策维持宽松，利率預計随复苏走升。  预计美元短期仍较坚挺，人民币趋稳。美元利息差和美国经济增长的韧性短期持续支持美元。倘若中东局势进一步恶化，美元可能走高。但联储紧缩已到顶，更多美国经济放缓的信号可能将推动美元实质性下滑。人民币一篮子汇率近期升值，兑美元汇率仍有压力。随着稳增长政策推动国内经济前景持续改善，预计人民币兑美元汇率未来逐步回升。 下月市场焦点：国际方面，需要关注欧美国家通胀及就业数据，央行议息会议。国内方面，关注经济活动高频数据和宏观政策。 Main points:  The Fed to stay put in Nov with a hawkish bias. Global rates will continue to fluctuate at elevated levels. The 3Q acceleration in US growth beat expectations. However, we still expect an economic slowdown ahead. With core inflation easing and rising long-term rates, this will tighten financial conditions. Coupled with Intensified geopolitical conflicts which have added to growth concerns, we expect that the Fed is done with rate hikes, but will maintain a hawkish bias. We pencil in rate cuts in 2H24F at the earliest. The impact of monetary tightening will slow economic growth and ease upward pressure on treasury yields in the months ahead. We expect the 2-year and 10-year yields to trade in the range of 4.8-5.2% and 4.4-4.9% in 4Q respectively. Key risks are stagflation and monetary tightening pressure stemming from geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.  Chinese economic recovery continues with accelerating local government debt restructuring. Industrial production and retail sales rebounded in Sep. We expect a continued modest recovery supported by more normalization of consumption, improving trade and stabilizing property sales. Increased fiscal support and accelerating debt restructuring should help ease pressure on local governments and support the cyclical picture. Monetary conditions will stay accommodative but Interest rates will likely pick up further with improving growth.  USD will remain strong in near-term, and USDCNY has stabilized. Interest rate differentials and US economic outperformance will continue to lend support to the USD in the near term. Any escalation in the Middle East conflict will likely push USD higher. However, US monetary tightening has peaked, and convincing signs of an economic slowdown will likely cause USD to fall meaningfully. The CNY has appreciated against a basket of currencies, but has stabilized against the USD. We expect CNY to strengthen against USD when the dollar wekens, supported also by the improvement in the domestic economic outlook. Market focus next month – internationally, we are keeping an eye on inflation and employment data, and central banker speeches. Domestically, our focus will be on high-frequency economic data and macro policy. 崔历 (852) 3911 8274 cuili@ccbintl.com 谢炫 (852) 3911 8241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com 严惠婷 (852) 3911 8012 yan