ASEAN-5：在碎片化风险中进一步利用区域一体化的好处（英）

ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration amid Fragmentation Risks Nuri Baek, Kaustubh Chahande, Kodjovi M. Eklou, Tidiane Kinda, Vatsal Nahata, Umang Rawat, and Ara Stepanyan WP/23/191 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2023SEP* The authors would like to thank Melih Firat, Yan Carriere-Swallow, and Maria Gonzalez for helpful comments as well as JustinFlinner for excellent production assistance.© 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/191IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration amid Fragmentation Risks Prepared by Nuri Baek, Kaustubh Chahande, Kodjovi M. Eklou, Tidiane Kinda, Vatsal Nahata, Umang Rawat, Ara Stepanyan* Authorized for distribution by Lamin Leigh September 2023IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: The ASEAN-5 region, which comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, has benefited substantially from its integration to the world economy, particularly through trade. Rising risks of geoeconomic fragmentation could reverse some gains reaped from globalization over the past decades. In this context, advancing regional integration among ASEAN-5 members has the potential to enhance the region’s resilience against external headwinds. This paper shows that despite sizeable progress, particularly in regional trade integration, there is room to advance financial integration, which also lags trade integration in ASEAN-5. Empirical findings from the paper illustrate that a higher degree of regional financial integration could generate sizeable output gains for the region. Using firm-level data, the paper highlights that digitalization, an area where the region is thriving, can support regional integration by helping firms better integrate into global value chains, with the benefits being stronger for small and medium sized enterprises. The results also suggest that digitalization can help firms move up the value chain through the production of more sophisticated products, often coined as higher export sophistication. JEL Classification Numbers: F13, F15, O31 Keywords: Trade integration; financial integration; digitalization; fragmentationrisks Author’s E-Mail Address: NBaek@imf.org, kchahande@imf.org, KEklou@imf.org, TKinda@imf.org, VNahata@imf.org, URawat@imf.org, AStepanyan@imf.org WORKING PAPERS ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration amid Fragmentation Risks Prepared by Nuri Baek, Kaust