IMF-欧元区可调利率抵押贷款的货币政策传导（英）

Monetary Policy Transmission Through Adjustable-Rate Mortgages in the Euro Area Giovanni Sciacovelli WP/25/257IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 DEC* I am indebted to my advisors Martin Eichenbaum, Giorgio Primiceri, and Matthew Rognlie for their continuous guidance and supportduring this project. I am grateful to George-Marios Angeletos, Michael Cai, Diego Känzig, Guido Lorenzoni, Laura Murphy, andseminar participants at the IMF, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of France, Bank of Italy, Bank of Spain, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Northwestern University for helpful comments, suggestions, and discussions. I gratefully acknowledge Jirka Slacalek for sharing the series on the fraction of hand-to-mouth households in Italy.This paper uses data from the Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey. The results published and the related observations and analysis may not correspond to results or analysis of the data producers. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/257IMF Working Paper Research Department Monetary Policy Transmission Through Adjustable-Rate Mortgages in the Euro Area Prepared by Giovanni Sciacovelli* Authorized for distribution by Maria Soledad Martinez Peria December 2025IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper studies the role of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) in monetary policy transmission within the Euro Area. Conventional wisdom holds that ARMs are relevant per se. This study finds that the presence of liquidity-constrained households strongly influences their impact. Using Euro Area survey data, I document that transmission is stronger in countries that exhibit both high ARM shares and sizable shares of liquidity-constrained households. To interpret this finding, I develop a heterogeneous-agent model featuring: (i) heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume (MPCs), (ii) agents making both housing and mortgage choices, and (iii) a fraction of households with ARMs. In the model, MPCs determine the extent to which changes in mortgage payments translate into changes in consumption, making ARMs an important transmission vehicle only when paired with high MPCs. These results highlight that accounting for household heterogeneity in MPCs is essential to assess the strength of transmission through ARMs. JEL Classification Numbers: D14, E21, E52, E58 Keywords: Adjustable-rate mortgages; Euro Area; household heterogeneity; marginal propensity to consume; monetary polic