IMF-水资源宏观临界性（英）

Macro-Criticality of Water Resources Suphachol Suphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros, Junko Mochizuki, Christine Richmond, and Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos WP/25/251 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 DEC © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/251IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Macro-Criticality of Water Resources Prepared by Suphachol Suphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros, Junko Mochizuki, Christine Richmond, and Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos Authorized for distribution by Dora Benedek December 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper examines the macro-criticality of water resources in the context of climate change. It summarizes the past and future trends of water scarcity and droughts and proposes a framework to analyze the macro-criticality and role of public sector engagement in the water sector. The paper maps out channels through which water resources affect the macro-fiscal and balance of payments positions and develops an understanding of macro-fiscal exposure based on empirical evidence. It also synthesizes emerging insights from IMF-supported operations and capacity development activities, thereby clarifying the rationale and scope for IMF engagement in water-related policy reforms. JEL Classification Numbers: E6, Q25, Q28, Q54, Q58 Keywords: Water; Water Scarcity; Climate Change; Macro-Criticality; Macro-Fiscal Author’s E-Mail Address: SSuphachalasai@imf.org, PJuarros@imf.org, JMochizuki@imf.org, CRichmond@imf.org, Svonthadden-kosto@imf.org IMF WORKING PAPERS Macro-Criticality of Water Resources INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 WORKING PAPERS Macro-Criticality of Water Resources Prepared by Suphachol Suphachalasai, Ximing Dong, Pedro Juarros, Junko Mochizuki, Christine Richmond, and Sylke von Thadden-Kostopoulos1 1 The authors would like to thank Dora Benedek, Ruud de Mooij, and Vitor Gaspar for their support and guidance throughout this project. Thanks also to FADCP and FAD seminar participants for their helpful comments and suggestions as well as Koralai Kirabaeva for inputs at an earlier stage of this work and useful conversations. We also thank Filippos Tagklis for inputs on climate impact, Joaquim Guilhoto and Hasan Dudu for insights on environmentally extended input output analysis, and Maja Gravilovic for BOP discussions. Jing Han provided excellent research support. IMF WORKING PAPERS Macro-Criticality of Water Resources INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 Contents Int