IMF-新兴市场的韧性：好运还是好政策？（英）

Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies? Marijn A. Bolhuis, Francesco Grigoli, Marcin Kolasa, Roland Meeks, Andrea F. Presbitero, Zhao Zhang WP/25/256 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 DEC © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/256IMF Working Paper Research Department Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies? Prepared by Marijn A. Bolhuis, Francesco Grigoli, Marcin Kolasa, Roland Meeks, Andrea F. Presbitero, and Zhao Zhang Authorized for distribution by Deniz Igan December 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience during risk-off episodes in recent years. While favorable external conditions---good luck---contributed to this resilience, improvements in policy frameworks---good policies---played a critical role in bolstering the capacity of emerging markets to withstand the adverse consequences of these events. Improvements in monetary policy implementation and credibility have reduced reliance on foreign exchange (FX) interventions and capital flow management measures, and stricter macroprudential regulation also contributed to less FX interventions. Also, central banks have become less sensitive to fiscal interference and hold sway over domestic borrowing conditions. Looking ahead, countries with robust frameworks face easier policy trade-offs and are better positioned to navigate risk-off episodes. In contrast, economies with weaker frameworks risk de-anchoring inflation expectations and larger output losses if monetary tightening is delayed, especially when persistent price pressures emerge. In these settings, FX interventions offer only temporary relief and are less necessary when policy frameworks are sound. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Bolhius et al. (2025) JEL Classification Numbers: F14, F60, I18 Keywords: Emerging markets; Risk-off shocks; Monetary policy; FX interventions Author’s E-Mail Address: mbolhuis@imf.org, fgrigoli@imf.org, mkolasa@imf.org, rmeeks@imf.org, apresbitero@imf.org, zzhang7@imf.org Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?*Marijn A. BolhuisFrancesco GrigoliMarcin KolasaIMFIMFIMFRoland MeeksAndrea F. PresbiteroZhao ZhangIMFIMF and CEPRIMFThis draft: December 2, 2025AbstractEmerging markets have shown remarkable resilience during risk-off episodes in recent years.While favorable external conditions—good luck—contributed to this resilience, improvements inpolicy frameworks—good policies—played a critical role in bolst