IMF-海湾合作委员会（GCC）-增强对全球冲击的抵御能力：GCC国家的经济前景和政策挑战（英）

© 2025 International Monetary Fund GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC)— ENHANCING RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL SHOCKS: ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND POLICY CHALLENGES FOR THE GCC COUNTRIES IMF staff regularly produces papers proposing new IMF policies, exploring options for reform, or reviewing existing IMF policies and operations. The Report prepared by IMF staff and completed on November 20, 2025, has been released. The staff report was issued to the Executive Board for information. The report was prepared by IMF staff. The views expressed in this paper are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF's Executive Board. The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents. Electronic copies of IMF Policy Papers are available to the public from http://www.imf.org/external/pp/ppindex.aspx International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. December 2025 The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be reported as or attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or the governments of any of its member countries. Gulf Cooperation Council Enhancing Resilience to Global Shocks: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries (2025) Prepared by Staff of the International Monetary Fund I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D ENHANCING RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL SHOCKS: ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND POLICY CHALLENGES FOR THE GCC COUNTRIES 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1 Despite the challenging external environment, the GCC economies have been resilient. Non-hydrocarbon activity has remained robust amid strong domestic demand supported by the reform momentum, limited spillovers from regional, as well as the modest direct impact of higher U.S. tariffs given the exemption of energy products and limited trade ties with the U.S. While external balances narrowed amid oil production cuts and robust imports, the external positions remain overall strong. The economic outlook remains favorable but risks are tilted to the downside amidst elevated global uncertainty. Economic activity will be supported by the unwinding of oil production cuts, the expansion of natural gas production, and strong reform and project implementation facilitated by ample policy buffers. External buffers would remain comfortable despite narrower current account balances driven by higher imports. The near-term risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, as oil prices could decline and financial conditions tighten amid high uncertainty. Over the medium term, ongoing global structural shifts pose two-sided risks for the GCC economies. Amid elevated global uncertainty and commodity price volatility, policies need to focus on building resilience and accelerating economic diversification irrespective of oil prices. Fiscal policy. The