IMF-对移动货币征税：理论与证据（英）

Taxing Mobile Money: Theory and Evidence Michael Barczay, Shafik Hebous, Fayçal Sawadogo, and Jean-François Wen WP/25/255 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 DEC * We thank seminar and conference participants at the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Goethe UniversityFrankfurt (Workshop on Digital Money and Taxation); the Bank of Italy conference, “The interplay between tax andfinancial regulations in a new digital environment” (Rome); the Centre for Business Taxation, University of Oxford; andthe International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF) Annual Congress (Nairobi) for helpful comments. We gratefullyacknowledge project-related financial support from the Government of Japan for this analytical work. We are gratefulto the mobile operator for providing the data.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/255IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Taxing Mobile Money: Theory and Evidence Prepared by Michael Barczay*, Shafik Hebous*, Fayçal Sawadogo*, and Jean-François Wen* Authorized for distribution by Mario Mansour December 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Mobile money has become a central digital alternative to traditional banking in developing countries, yet several African governments have introduced taxes on mobile money transactions. We develop a model that characterizes how such taxes affect payment choices and generate excess burden. The model predicts that taxation reduces mobile money use, with elasticities shaped by access to substitutes and transaction costs: banked users substitute into formal alternatives, while unbanked users face higher effective costs, making the tax regressive. Taxation also induces substitution into cash, raising informality. We empirically test these predictions using cross-country survey data and novel transaction-level data from Cameroon, the Central African Republic, and Mali. Results show sharp declines in mobile money usage, with stronger responses among the banked. Unbanked and rural users bear a disproportionate burden. We use the empirical estimates to gauge the excess burden of the tax, which we quantify at 35% of revenue—highlighting its significant efficiency cost alongside its regressive impact. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Barczay, M., Hebous, S., Sawadogo, F., and Wen, J-F. (2025). Taxing Mobile Money: Theory and Evidence. IMF Working Paper WP/25/255 JEL Classification Numbers: H27, O16, G20, E42 Keywords: Mobile Money Tax; Financial Inclusion; Transaction Taxes Author’s E-