IMF-阿拉伯联合酋长国：选定问题（英）

© 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/328 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SELECTED ISSUES This paper on the United Arab Emirates was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on November 11, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. December 2025 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SELECTED ISSUES Approved By Middle East and Central Asia Department Prepared by Koralai Kirabaeva, Michele Marcaletti, Karim Badr, Rana Fayez, Charlotte Sandoz, Sebastiano Dell’Acqua (all MCD), and Amanda Sayegh (FAD), under the guidance of Said Bakhache. THE UAE ECONOMY: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL RESILIENCE _________________________ 3 A. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________________ 3 B. Financial Resilience to Global Shocks _____________________________________________________ 5 C. The US Interest Rate Transmission to the UAE Economy __________________________________ 9 D. External Trade and Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements ________________ 11 E. Conclusion _______________________________________________________________________________ 15 BOX 1. Spotlight on India CEPA _________________________________________________________________ 15 FEDERALISM AND FISCAL OPERATIONS IN THE UAE __________________________________ 17 A. Introduction _____________________________________________________________________________ 17 B. Fiscal Structure of the UAE ______________________________________________________________ 17 C. Fiscal Policy Objectives and Challenges _________________________________________________ 20 D. Strengthening Fiscal Policy Framework _________________________________________________ 22 E. Fiscal Statistics ___________________________________________________________________________ 26 F. Conclusion _______________________________________________________________________________ 27 BOX 1. Core Objectives and Elements of an MTFF ______________________________________________ 23 ANNEX I. Country Case Studies on Fiscal Coordination ____________________________________________ 28 CONTENTS November 11, 2025 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND NON-HYDROCARBON PRODUCTIVITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE UAE __________________________________________________ 31 A. Introduction ___________________________________________________________________________________ 31 B. Estimation Methodology for Non-Hydrocarbon TFP __________________________________________ 31 C. Results _________________________________________________________________________________________ 32 D