新兴市场-金融市场-新兴市场固定收益：问题在哪里？-EMEA Fixed Income：What’s the issue？：4-8Sep-Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Emerging Markets Rates Gov. Bonds & Swaps Date 4 September 2017 EMEA Fixed Income What's the issue?: 4 - 8 Sep ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Deutsche Bank AG/London DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. Christian Wietoska Strategist (+44) 20 754-52424 christian.wietoska@db.com Ankit Jain Research Associate (+91) 22 6181-1634 ankit.jain@db.com This report provides a weekly update on upcoming issuances in EMEA local bond markets. While we provide details on issuances, we also evaluate the attractiveness of bonds on auction based on our DB valuation models. In addition, we incorporate a cross-country analysis on local bonds, summarizing recent auctions as well as explaining the issuance mix/strategy for each country. The report will develop over time, and we are planning to incorporate more EM(EA) countries within the next publications. For now we cover the following countries: Czech, Hungary, Israel, Poland, Russia, South Africa and Turkey. Report Outline Information on issuances over the coming week across EMEADetails on previous issuances and cross-country comparison on localmarket issuances YTDCountry section with bonds issues YTD relative to ‘16, asset/maturitybreakdown, gross issuances / redemption profile and bond valuation tablesWeekly issuances in local bonds: Israel will issue three fixed bonds (Nov-22 – ILS 250mn, Mar-27 – 250mn,and Mar-47 – 150mn) as well as one linker (May-27 – 200mn) on Monday.Valuation: Among the fixed bonds Mar-27 and Mar-47 look attractive whileNov-22 is not yet ranked in our model due to lack of historical data.South Africa will issue three fixed bonds this Tuesday; Feb-31(ZAR900mn), Mar-32 (900mn) and Feb-48 (850mn). On Friday they followwith three linkers; Jan-25, Mar-29 and Mar-46 – all at 500mn. Valuation:Based on our valuation models, we find that R207, R2035 and R2040 arecurrently the most attractive bonds on the curve while R2023, R209 andR214 are rich, in particular. Among the bonds on auction R213 is tradingat “fair value”, R2035 is very attractive particularly compared to R209while R2048 is rich compared to fair value but cheap compared to recentweeks implying a pickup of 3bp.Russia will issue on Wednesday this week. However, more details will onlybe announced on Tuesday. At last week’s auctions Russia issued one fixedbond (Sep-26) and one floater (Nov-22). Interest was reasonably strong forboth bonds (2.6x floater and 2.9x fixed bonds). Despite the robust demandfor the fixed bond, Oct-24 looks currently more attractive than Sep-26.Valuation for fixed bonds without fixed bond auctions this week Czech: Feb-27, Aug-28 and May-30 are the three most attractive bonds,while Aug-18, Apr-19 and Sep-25 all look rich Hungary 20/A, 21/B, 22/B and 28/A are among the most attractive bondson the curve. On the other hand 19/A and 19/C – both due to bond swi