高盛中国市场策略 2022市场展望：“不适”的上行空间；离岸市场重回超配

高盛全球投资研究2022市场展望：“不适”的上行空间；离岸市场重回超配高盛中国市场策略2021年11月刘劲津 Kinger Lau, CFAGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.852-2978-1224kinger.lau@gs.com付思 Si Fu, PHDGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.852-2978-0200si.fu@gs.com投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯⼀因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。2Global Investment Research2022年核心展望Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research3Global Investment ResearchSource: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research六张图概括2022年中国股票市场主要观点4Global Investment Research宏观周期：我们的经济研究团队预计2022年中国GDP增长4.8%,这是危机年份之外的历史最低增速Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research201920202021F2022FGDP% yoy6.02.37.84.8Domestic Demandpp5.21.76.84.9Consumption% yoy6.2-0.98.36.7Household Consumption% yoy6.4-1.711.07.0Gross Capital Formation% yoy4.05.35.32.8Net Exportspp0.70.71.1-0.1Exports of Goods (nominal USD)% yoy0.53.62812Imports of Goods (nominal USD)% yoy-2.7-0.63214InflationCPI% yoy2.92.50.72.7Core CPI% yoy1.70.70.91.8PPI% yoy-0.5-1.87.54.5OtherCurrent Account% GDP0.71.91.71.6USDCNY (eop)level6.966.536.356.20OMO 7-Day Repo Rate%2.502.202.202.20TSF Stock Growth (eop)%10.713.310.510.5Augmented Fiscal Deficit% GDP11.816.511.012.05Global Investment Research宏观周期：房地产市场构成显著阻力，但是增长动能将于2021年四季度开始改善Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research6.0 5.5 5.05.0 4.50246810Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22GDP growthReal GDP (yoy)Real GDP (qoq, saar)Forecast6Global Investment Research盈利周期：由于利润率假设较为保守，我们的2022年盈利增长预期低于市场一致预期Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchGSe: 7%GSe: 12%Cons: 14%Cons: 14%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021E2022E2023EMSCI China earnings growth (% yoy, in HKD terms)GSe: 9.6% GSe: 9.5%GSe:9.8%GSe:18%GSe:9%GSe:9%9%10%11%12%13%14%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021E2022E2023EMXCN Net MarginMXCN Sales growthSales growth (% yoy)Net margin (%)7Global Investment Research盈利周期：房地产市场放缓的程度是我们盈利预测面临的主要风险因素Source: FactSet, CEIC, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research65707580859095100105Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21MXCNProperty-centric ex. EnergyInternetNon property-centric/internet+2% (11%)-3% (29%)-5%(14%)-34% (28%)MXCN EPS Revision (Average of 2021/22 EPS) (CNY)Note: Numbers in brackets represent 2021-23E EPS CAGR on consensus est.-35%-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 32022E earnings impact from property sector slowdownFinancingProperty constructionRelated consumptionAsset allocationMacro impacts on other sectorsNew starts: -15%Completion: +10%Sales volume: -5%ASP: -5%Land sales: -15%FCI: +35bpNew starts: -22.5%Completion: 0%Sales volume: -7.5%ASP: -7.5%Land sales: -22.5%FCI: +70bpNew starts: -30%Completion: -10%Sales volume: -10%ASP: -10%Land sales: -30%FCI: +140bp-10%-17%-28%-6%GS 2022E EPSg: 7%2022E EPSg without property impact: +13%8Global Investment Research盈利周期：我们看好半导体、互联网零售以及传媒娱乐行业，但对房地产相关行业更加保守Source: FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs