高盛重磅：中国民营企业回归三部曲，点名“民营企业十巨头”（中英）

15 June 2025 | 7:44PM HKT15 June 2025 | 7:44PM HKT中国策略中国民营企业的回归（第一部分）：潮流已转China StrategyThe comeback of Chinese POEs (Part 1): The tide hasturnedAfter losing almost US$4tn of market cap and underperforming the SOE sector by56pp (cum dividends) since late 2020, Chinese private-owned enterprises (POEs),which represent 60% of the entire listed universe by market value, are in theprocess of regaining their “mojo” in the equity market. Key arguments are:Kinger Lau, CFA+852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.自 2020 年底以来，中国民营企业（ POEs ）市值蒸发近 4 万亿美元，且（含股息）表现落后于国有企业部门 56 个百分点。中国民营企业按市值计占整个上市市场的60%，目前正逐步在股票市场中重拾 “ 魔力 ”。关键论点如下：Kinger Lau, CFA+852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Timothy Moe, CFA+65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Singapore) PteTimothy Moe, CFA+65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte傅思 ,ꢀ博士 +852‑2978‑0200ꢀsi高.fu盛@（g亚s.c洲o）m有限责任公司|Si Fu, Ph.D.+852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.私营部门的重要性已被高级 1. 政策制定者认可，正如习近平主席于二月召集中1. The importance of the private sector has been recognized by seniorpolicymakers, as shown by the Symposium convened by President Xi withleading Chinese entrepreneurs in February and the first-ever legislation of POElaw in late April;国企业家举行的研讨会以及四月底首次颁布的民营企业法所体现的；王凯文 ,ꢀ注册金融分析师 +852‑Kevin Wang, CFA+852-2978-2446 | kevin.wang@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.2978‑2446ꢀk|e高vi盛n.（w a亚n洲g@）g有s.c限o责m任 公 司2. The regulation cycle towards the private economy has eased per ourrevamped proprietary indicator, helpful in compressing the policy and regulationrisk premium for listed POEs;根据我们 2. 修订后的专有指标，私营经济的监管周期已趋缓，这有助于压缩上市民营企业的政策和监管风险溢价；持续的人工智能和科技突破已改写叙事，并提升了民营企业的增长前景，民营3. The continuing AI and technology breakthroughs have rewritten the narrativeand brightened the growth prospects for POEs, which make up 72% of ourdefined AI-Tech universe;企业占我们定义的人工智能科技领域的 72% ；民营企业正引领中国 “ 走出去 ” 战略，使其能够实现有机增长，享受更高利4. POEs are leading the charge of China’s “Going Global” ambition, allowingthem to grow organically, enjoy higher margins, and diversify away from theimmensely competitive domestic market;润率，并从竞争激烈的国内市场中实现多元化；民营企业的利润和净资产收益率自 2022 年低谷以来已分别上升了 22% 和1.2 个百分点，5. 并且在行业整合推动利润率正常化的背景下可能进一步恢复；5. POEs’ profits and ROE have risen 22% and 1.2pp since the troughs in 2022,and could further recover on margin normalization amid industry consolidation;民营企业部门 “ 动物精神 ” 回归的早期迹象表明对未来增长的投资意愿正在恢复，6. ；6. Early signs that “animal spirits” are back in the POE sector on renewedinvestment appetite for future growth; and,民营企业的估值相较于其历史区间和 7. 国有企业存在折扣，现金回报（收7. POEs are trading at valuation discounts to their historical ranges and vs.益率）升至历史高位。SOEs, with cash returns (yields) elevating to record highs.尽管贝塔故事有所改善，我们认为在广泛的上市民营企业中，仍需选择性以实现成功。我们看好中国杰出、中国精选人工智能组合 10ꢀGSꢀ以及我们的 “ 小巨人篮子 ”中的投资主题，适合希望获得有针对性敞口的投资者。此外，民营企业和国有企业并非相互排斥 —— 我们重申对 “ 高质量 ” 中国国有企业股东回报投资组合的主题偏好。While the beta story has improved, we believe selectivity is still required forsuccess in the broad listed POE universe.We favor t