俄罗斯的远见卓识：世界走向何方？（英文）

© European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2021.The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.SERIESBRIEF / 1Jan 2021HOW RUSSIA DOES FORESIGHTWhere is the world going?byAndrew MonaghanNon-Resident Associate Fellow of the NATO Defence College; Senior Associate Fellow, Royal United Services InstituteThinking about the long-term future is a prominent feature of the Russian official strategic planning and public policy debate. Speaking in 2008, for instance, President Putin indicated the horizons of strategic planning when he stated that a concrete development plan for the period through to 2010 had been elabo-rated, and “now we need to look beyond this horizon – look at least 10 years ahead”. “Today we are deciding one of the most important issues for Russia’s future – defining its development strategy through to  2020”, he stated, and in setting out Russia's long-term vi-sion for the future, "our long-term references must be clear to everyone”, and “must have the support of our citizens.”1 By the mid-2010s, policy-oriented public organisa-tions were looking even further ahead. The Valdai Club, for instance, was conducting a project entitled Club 2035, to “look beyond the horizon” at a number of themes, including technological and socio-cultural trends, and the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) was running a “World in 100 Years” project, in-cluding the series “On the eve of 2037”. Other major in-stitutes, such as the Institute of World Economics and International Affairs (IMEMO) and the Moscow State Institute of International Affairs (MGIMO), also hold regular major events and publish substantial volumes Summary ›Russian strategic planning currently fo-cuses on the long-term future, projecting up to 2030 and beyond. The Russian fore-sight debate has absorbed the influence of certain international thinkers, but despite some similarities to Western perspectives, there are important specificities in Russian foresight thinking, which places particular emphasis on geopolitical and geoeconomic developments. ›Many of the assessments by Russian ana-lysts point to a changing world order, with power moving from West to East, and are pessimistic about what this means for Russia – and for the world. This sense of gloom has increased since the mid-2010s with the sharp deterioration in relations between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic community. ›Strategic forecasting, as reflected in a new series of strategic planning documents with horizons to the late-2020s/2030s, has im-plications for understanding Russian policy priorities. Foresight also plays an important role in defence planning and is an essential part of Russian military science.2AndREW MonAghAnreflecting on twenty-first century megatrends and strategic forecasting up to 2030 and beyond.2THE RUSSIAN FORESIGHT DEBATEInternational influence is visible in the Russian fore-sight debate, through sourcin