中国的印太“朋友圈”战略（英）

174CHAILLOT PAPER / 174April 2022The ‘circle of friends’ versus the Indo-Pacific strategyByAlice EkmanCHINA AND THE BATTLE OF COALITIONSEuropean Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)100, avenue de Suffren 75015 Paris http://www.iss.europa.eu Director: Gustav Lindstrom© EU Institute for Security Studies, 2022. Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated.The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.printISBN 978-92-9462-136-8CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-22-002-EN-CISSN 1017-7566DOI 10.2815/096067onlineISBN 978-92-9462-137-5CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-22-002-EN-NISSN 1683-4917DOI 10.2815/815557Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Belgium by Bietlot. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2022. Cover image credit: Lin Zhizhao/UnsplashThe ‘circle of friends’ versus the Indo-Pacific strategyByAlice EkmanCHINA AND THE BATTLE OF COALITIONSCHAILLOT PAPER / 174April 2022The authorAlice Ekman is the Senior Analyst in charge of the Asia portfolio at the EUISS. Her re-search covers foreign policy and security de-velopments in the Asian region – including in China, the Korean Peninsula, Japan, India and ASEAN. At the EUISS, she also manag-es regular ‘Track 1.5’ dialogues with the EU’s partners in Asia and coordinates the EU com-mittee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP EU). She was for-merly head of China research at the Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri) in Paris. She holds a PhD in International Rela-tions from the Institut d’études politiques de Paris (Sciences Po). Her book Rouge vif – l’idéal communiste chinois (Editions de l’Observatoire) was awarded the prize for best geopolitical book of the year in France in 2020.AcknowledgementsThe author would like to thank Cristina de Es-peranza Picardo, Sophie Reiss and Dalia Parete for their helpful research assistance, as well as Stanislav Secrieru, Senior Analyst at the EU-ISS, Richard Gowan, UN Director at the Inter-national Crisis Group, Bruce Jones, Director of the Project on International Order and Strat-egy at Brookings, and Marc Limon, Executive Director of the Universal Rights Group, for their valuable insights and comments.1CONTENTSExecutive Summary 2INTRODUCTIONCHAPTER 1Ambitions 6Enlarging China’s ‘circle of friends’ Partnerships but not alliances 6Restructuring global governance 7Normative ambitions 9CHAPTER 2Methodology 12How China makes friendsNetwork building: Russia at the core 12The Belt and Road Initiative: a network-building platform 15The UN and China’s ambition to reform global governance 16CHAPTER 3Achievements and prospects 21China’s coalition-building strategyWinning by numbers 21Covid-19: China’s strategy unchanged 23Indo-Pacific vs. Asia-Pacific 25CHAPTER 4Scenario 2027 29Coalitions at warThe 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine: deepening divisions over san