动力转换-低碳转型对油气经济的影响（英）

CHAILLOT PAPER / 177March 2023The impact of the low-carbon transition on the oil and gas economyByYana PopkostovaTHE POWER SHIFTEuropean Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)100, avenue de Suffren 75015 Paris http://www.iss.europa.eu Director: Gustav Lindstrom© EU Institute for Security Studies, 2023. Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated.The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.printISBN 978-92-9462-144-3CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-22-005-EN-CISSN 1017-7566DOI 10.2815/840490onlineISBN 978-92-9462-145-0CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-22-005-EN-NISSN 1683-4917DOI 10.2815/844622Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Belgium by Bietlot. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2023. Cover image credit: Sander Weeteling/UnsplashTHE POWER SHIFTThe impact of the low-carbon transition on the oil and gas economyByYana PopkostovaCHAILLOT PAPER / 177March 2023The EUISS Chaillot Paper seriesThe Chaillot Paper series, launched in 1991, takes its name from the Chaillot hill in the Trocadéro area of Paris, where the Institute’s first prem-ises were located in the building occupied by the Western European Union (WEU). The hill is particularly known for the Palais de Chail-lot which was the site of the signing of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948, and housed NATO’s provisional headquarters from 1952 until 1959.The authorYana Popkostova is an Associate Analyst at the EUISS, where she is in charge of the energy, climate and environmental security portfolio. She is the founder of the European Centre for Energy and Geopolitical Analysis (ECEGA), an expert with the World Energy Council and an advisory group member of the UNDP Energy Governance Initiative. 1CONTENTSExecutive summary 2INTRODUCTIONThe rip current of change 3The net-zero (r)evolution?CHAPTER 1The Faustian pact 7The impact of decarbonisation on legacy fuels and energy securityCHAPTER 2Adapting to a carbon-constrained reality 10Options for hydrocarbon producersCHAPTER 3Geopolitical fallouts 25The power dynamics of global energy politics CHAPTER 4The EU energy crisis 31A debacle waiting to happen?CHAPTER 5Through a glass darkly 41Looking ahead CONCLUSION The net-zero trajectory 80Navigating the shifting sands of the energy transitionAbbreviations 812The world’s reckoning with environmental degradation and climate change, which has emerged in particularly stark relief over the past three decades, has led to the low-carbon energy transition being embraced as the uni-versal solution to the global climate challenge. However, enthusiasm for clean energy and low-carbon technological innovation has not always been matched by a commitment to relinquish the addiction to consumption-led growth. Policy incentives for radical de-carbonisation and support to clean energy technologies have driven an unprecedented real