阿拉伯气候未来-风险与准备（英）

Of risk and readinessByFlorence Gaub and Clémentine LienardARAB CLIMATE FUTURESCHAILLOT PAPER / 170October 2021European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)100, avenue de Suffren 75015 Paris http://www.iss.europa.eu Director: Gustav Lindstrom© EU Institute for Security Studies, 2021. Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated.The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.printISBN 978-92-9198-964-5CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-20-003-EN-CISSN 1017-7566DOI 10.2815/436970onlineISBN 978-92-9198-965-2CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-20-003-EN-NISSN 1683-4917DOI 10.2815/880622Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Belgium by Bietlot. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2021. Cover image credit: /UnsplashCHAILLOT PAPER / 170October 2021Of risk and readinessByFlorence Gaub and Clémentine LienardARAB CLIMATE FUTURESThe EUISS Chaillot Paper seriesThe Chaillot Paper series, launched in 1991, takes its name from the Chaillot hill in the Trocadéro area of Paris, where the Institute’s first premises were located in the building oc-cupied by the Western European Union (WEU). The hill is particularly known for the Palais de Chaillot which was the site of the signing of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948, and housed NATO’s provisional head-quarters from 1952 until 1959.The authorsFlorence Gaub is the Deputy Director of the EUISS. She specialises in strategic foresight, as well as security and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa.Clémentine Lienard is an executive trainee at the EUISS.1CONTENTSExecutive summary 2Introduction 3CHAPTER 1Future climate facts 7What we know so farBlue is the new gold: on water availability 8Man and nature: effects on the biosphere 14Disasters in the making: of floods, landslides and rising sea levels 19CHAPTER 2On collision course 24Climate change meets humanityMore people, more problems? Population growth and climate change 24Living in the hot seat? Urbanisation and climate change 29The price tag: economic effects of climate change 33CHAPTER 3Avoidance manoeuvring 37Encouraging trendsBetter late than never: growing institutional awareness 37We want trees: rising citizen awareness 43Of potential and possibility: energy innovation 48CHAPTER 4Ready or not? 52A climate risk assessmentConclusion 63Policy considerationsAnnex 70List of indicators used for the Risk Index and their sources 70Abbreviations 752Although the Middle East and North Africa has contributed only 3 % of total global CO2 emis-sions since 1850, it will be one of the world regions hit the hardest by climate change. Unless a technological breakthrough occurs quickly that will make it possible to capture the carbon already present in the atmosphere in a safely managed and cost-effective way, temperatures in the region are certain to in-crease by around 2 °C between 2021