联合国贸易发展委员会-全球贸易更新（2026年1月）：2026年重新定义全球贸易的主要趋势（英）

Top trends redefining global trade in 2026Policy Insights© Adobe StockGlobal tradeupdateJ A N U A R Y 2 0 2 6KEY TRENDS12345678910Global economic and trade growth slows – developing countries will face headwinds.Updating the rules – WTO reform at a crossroads for global trade in 2026.Tariffs on the rise – increased protectionism may trigger greater policy uncertainty. Value chains continue to reconfigure – geopolitics redraws trade and investment maps. Servicification of trade – exports of services continue to grow faster than goods.South–South trade surge – developing countries drive global export growth.Sustainable trade – environment will continue to be part of global trade initiatives. Critical minerals - oversupply and geopolitics may destabilize trade and global value chains.Feeding the future – agricultural trade will remain fundamental to food security.Trade regulations tighten – national policies reshape global commerce.J A N U A RY 2 0 2 6Global tradeUpdate2Policy insightsGlobal economic and trade growth slows – developing countries will face headwinds Global growth remains sluggish. Global economic growth in 2026 will moderate trade prospects, investment flows, and policy choices. UNCTAD estimates global growth will remain subdued at 2.6 per cent in 2025 and 2026, despite potential gains from technologies such as artificial intelligence.1 Growth in developing economies (excluding China) is expected to ease slightly to 4.2 per cent in 2026, down from 4.3 per cent in 2025, pointing to a volatile external environment.2 Major economies will also lose momentum. The United States growth is projected at 1.5 per cent in 2026, down from 1.8 per cent in 2025, while China—an essential trade and investment partner for many developing countries—is expected to expand by 4.6 per cent in 2026, down from 5 per cent in 2025. In Europe, fiscal stimulus in countries like Germany may offer limited support, but overall demand will remain modest.3 1 UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report 2025, pp. 4–5.2 UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report 2025, p. 2.. 3 UNCTAD, Trade and Development Report 2025, pp. 4–5.Global trade in 2026 is at a critical juncture. Geopolitical considerations, economic headwinds, shifting supply chains, digital breakthroughs, and sustainability imperatives are redefining how countries engage in commerce – with especially profound implications for developing nations. Policymakers face an urgent challenge to navigate this complex landscape while ensuring trade continues to drive inclusive and sustainable growth. This report examines ten key trends to follow in 2026.J A N U A RY 2 0 2 6Global tradeUpdate Policy insightsTREND 1© Adobe StockJ A N U A RY 2 0 2 6Global tradeUpdate3Policy insightsFigure 1A deteriorating policy environment inhibits growth across the globe. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, world and selected economies, percentage, 2004–2026Source: UNCTAD. TDR 2025. p. 5.Slowing global growth is affecting allregions (C