美联储-利用项目级数据估算数据中心总投资（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Estimating Aggregate Data Center Investment with Project-levelDataEirik Eylands Brandsaas, Daniel Garcia, Robert Kurtzman, Joseph Nichols,and Adelia Zytek2025-109Please cite this paper as:Brandsaas, Eirik Eylands, Daniel Garcia, Robert Kurtzman, Joseph Nichols, and AdeliaZytek (2025). “Estimating Aggregate Data Center Investment with Project-level Data,”Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-109. Washington: Board of Governors of theFederal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.109.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.Estimating Aggregate Data Center Investment withProject-level Data *Eirik Eylands Brandsaas†1, Daniel Garcia‡1, Robert Kurtzman§1, JosephNichols¶1, and Adelia Zytek||11Federal Reserve Board of GovernorsDecember 17, 2025AbstractData center investment in the U.S. has increased rapidly in the post-pandemic era, and plans forfuture investment have surged further. Forecasting investment at such a turning point is an importantbut potentially fraught exercise, especially given lags in aggregate data availability. We develop astraightforward method to forecast aggregate investment using project-level microdata and a smallnumber of parameters: specifically, abandonment rates, time from plan-to-start, and time from start-to-completion. As a key validation of our approach, we generate estimates that match the recent historyof aggregate data center investment in the NIPAs. We then use our method to generate nowcasts ofaggregate data center investment in the short run, with the mean forecast indicating that investment willincrease to $370 billion annualized by 2026:Q2. We can extend our methodology further out, but ourforecasts then become conditional on the assumed flow of new data center plans. Assuming future plansrange from one-fourth to twice the average pace of plans from 2024-2025 implies a range of investmentforecasts of $360 billion to $930 billion in 2027, demonstrating the substantial upside and downsiderisks to future levels of investment.Keywords: data centers, commercial real estate, forecasting, construction, time-to-planJEL Classification: R33, E22, E32, L74*We thank Chris Kurz and Raven Molloy for their helpful feedback. The views expressed in this paper are solelythose of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal ReserveSystem.†Division of Research & Statistics, Fede