UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy _3Q25 Earnings Brief November 20_ Simond...-118963420

ab20 November 2025Global ResearchUS Equity Strategy3Q25 Earnings Brief: November 20Yesterday, NVDA reported 3Q results. Year over year sales growth for NVDA was 62.5% while earnings increased by 59.2% (sales surprise: 3.7%; earnings surprise: 4.0%) (link).With 93.9% of the S&P 500's market cap reported, this will be the last earnings brief for this earnings season. 3Q expectations are for revenues to grow 8.1% and EPS by 15.8%. Earnings have beaten estimates by 9.2% in aggregate so far, with 78% of companies topping projections. Despite this, 2026 earnings revisions are still concentrated in Tech+ (link). Tech+ 2026 estimates have been revised up 9.3% since June, while S&P 500 ex Tech+ is near flat (0.4%). We still see signs of earnings broadening out next year, but so far consensus earnings have been slow to reflect this.Projected EPS growth among groups varies significantly, as shown below (a blend of consensus estimates and reported results where available): Expected EPS Growth YoY
TECH+: 29.0%
Financials: 24.9%
Non-Cyclicals: 1.4%
Cyclicals ex-Energy: 10.7%
Energy: -1.5%The 6 largest TECH+ companies are expected to outgrow the rest of the market as a group (EPS Growth 31.2% vs. 11.5%), though results vary for each company:Big 6 TECH+ EPS Growth (Expected vs. Actual, YoY)
GOOGL – 3Q25E: 4.9%; 3Q25A: 33.2%
META – 3Q25E: 10.2%; 3Q25A: 19.4%
MSFT – 3Q25E: 11.1%; 3Q25A: 25.2%
AAPL – 3Q25E: 5.4%; 3Q25A: 10.1%
AMZN – 3Q25E: 14.2%; 3Q25A: 41.7%
NVDA – 3Q25E: 52.4%; 3Q25A: 59.2%Over the next 5 trading days, 17 companies representing 2.3% of the S&P 500's market cap will report results, including Walmart, Intuit, Copart, Agilent Technologies, Autodesk and Workday.This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 19. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Equity StrategyAmericasSean SimondsStrategistsean.simonds@ubs.com+1-212-713 2851Maxwell Grinacoff, CFAStrategistmaxwell.grinacoff@ubs.com+1-212-713 3892Andrew GarthwaiteStrategistandrew.garthwaite@ubs.com+44-20-7567 4343Gerry FowlerStrategistgerry.fowler@ubs.com+44-20-7567 5490US Equity Strategy 20 November 2025ab 2US Equity StrategyUBS ResearchS&P 500Figure 1: S&P 500 EPS Growth 8.914.310.611.53Q244Q241Q252Q253Q25E%Current Consensus Forecast15.8Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Figure 2: S&P 500 EPS Growth - Impact from TECH+6.56.88.16.96.33Q244Q241Q252Q25E3Q25E%Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Note: Impact calculated as difference in EPS growth between S&P 500 and S&P 500 ex-TECH+3Q EPS Growth is now 15.8% YoY TECH+ has had an outsized impact on S&P 5