the flow show-The bubbly’s on ice

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12. 12905144 The Flow Show The bubbly’s on ice The Flow Show will return on December 4th. Scores on the Doors: gold 54.2%, international stocks 24.6%, US stocks 11.2%, IG bonds 9.3%, HY bonds 9.0%, commodities 6.0%, government bonds 5.7%, cash 3.8%, bitcoin -7.1%, US dollar -7.7%, oil -18.3% YTD. Zeitgeist: “Payrolls were negative in June and August, so the trade war was deflationary, and that’s why the new US trade policy will be lower tariff rates.” Zeitgeist: “US mid caps on 15x, yields down, trade war over, reshoring, yet they are down on the year. Fed way behind-curve, but when Fed forced to cut big, tons of stuff to buy.” Tale of the Tape: BoJ needs to hike…JGB yields breaking higher (Chart 5 - long-dated JGBs on track for worst 12% annual loss since 1970s), yen breaking lower (on cusp of 40-year lows…JPY 160); Japan “debasement” as new Japan PM seeks big fiscal stimulus (3% GDP) & BoJ real policy rate negative (-2%) why Japan carry-trade unwinding. The Price is Right: Fed needs to cut…says crypto, credit, dollar, private equity (see BX vs JPM – Chart 4), all trading “peak liquidity; bubbly “animal spirits” driven by mass rate cuts past 2 years (Chart) and belief more coming in ‘26; as in Dec’18, quickest route to Fed capitulation…banks (BKX<140), brokers (XBD<950) first start trading liquidity event; we long zero-coupon bonds to front-run Fed capitulation. The Biggest Picture: peak-to-trough bitcoin -30%, ether -41% (Chart 2); crypto just 0.4% of institutional asset allocation (per BofA Nov FMS) but record ’25 retail inflows to crypto ($46bn), derivatives now 74% of crypto trading volume…frontier of liquidity & speculation, will be be first to sniff out Fed coming to rescue. Chart 2: Crypto…“peak global liquidity” Bitcoin and Ether prices Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH 01000200030004000500060007000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000'18'19'20'21'22'23'24'25'26BitcoinEther (RHS)20 November 2025 Investment Strateg