欧洲央行-迈向新的欧洲体系资产负债表（英）

www.ecb.europa.eu © ECB-CONFIDENTIALTowards a new Eurosystem balance sheet1Chicago Booth Conference on the Global Economy and Financial Stability, London, 15 November 2025Isabel SchnabelMember of the Executive Board of the ECBRubricwww.ecb.europa.eu©1%74%0%25%50%75%100%AssetsLiabilities39%23%0%25%50%75%100%AssetsLiabilities2QE fundamentally changed the composition of the Eurosystem’s balance sheetSources: ECB and ECB calculations.Notes: The chart depicts the composition of the Eurosystem’s consolidated balance sheet as of 31 December 2006 and 31 December 2024, based on daily financial statements. The categorization is as follows: i) Gold and foreign reserves = A1, A2.2 & A3; ii) Credit operations = A5.1-5; iii) Euro-denominated securities = A4, A7 & A11.2 (Other financial assets); Banknotes = L1; Reserves = L2.1 & L2.2; Capital and revaluation accounts = L13 (Provisions), L14 (Revaluation accounts) & L15 (Capital and reserves). Remainingassets and liabilities are classified under “Other assets” and “Other liabilities”, respectively. A11.2 includes also other financial assets than euro-denominated securities.Eurosystem balance sheet composition(% of total assets or liabilities)End-2006 (€1.2 tn)End-2024 (€6.4 tn)Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu©0100020003000400050006000201520172019202120232025Pandemic emergency purchase programmeAsset purchase programmeEnd net purchases (July 2022)Start QN (March 2023)3Quantitative normalisation (QN) removes residual stimulus from the marketEstimated impact of APP and PEPP sovereign bond holdings on risk premia(basis points)Source: ECB calculations.Notes: The upper range of estimates are derived using an arbitrage-free affine model of the termstructure with a quantity factor (see Eser et al., 2023). The lower range is derived using analternative version of the model recalibrated so that the model-implied yield reactions to the MarchPEPP announcement match the two-day yield changes observed after 18 March 2020. The modelresults are derived using GDP-weighted averages of the zero-coupon yields of the big-foursovereign issuers (DE, FR, IT, ES). Latest observation: October 2025 (monthly data).Source: ECB.Notes: The chart depicts cumulative holdings of securities under the Asset Purchase Programmeand the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme. Net purchases were concluded in July 2022. Quantitative normalisation began in March 2023 with the partial reinvestments under the Asset Purchase Programme. Latest observation: October 2025.Eurosystem securities holdings under APP and PEPP(EUR bn)-200-180-160-140-120-100-80-60-4020152017201920212023202510yEnd net purchases (July 2022)Start QN (March 2023)Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu©01000200030004000500020182019202020212022202320242025Excess liquidityPeak EL (November 2022)Start QN (March 2023)100%110%120%130%140%150%160%170%180%20182019202020212022202320242025Actual LCRCounterfactual - no bond purchases by banksStart QN (March 2023)4Banks have kept LCR broadly constant despite large fall in ex