欧洲央行-欧洲央行的货币政策（英）

www.ecb.europa.eu © The monetary policy of the European Central BankJ. E. Cairnes lecture at the University of GalwayPhilip R. LaneMember of the Executive Board17 November 20250Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu ©1Monetary policy in the euro areaSource: ECB. Deposit Facility Rate(percentages per annum)(EUR trillion)Asset side of the Eurosystem balance sheetSource: ECB. Notes: Short-term credit operations refer to three-month longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) and main refinancing operations (MROs); long-term credit operations refer to LTROs with a maturity longer than three months, targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) and other lending operations. Other assets and other liabilities cover all other, non-monetary policy components. APP stands for asset purchase programme and PEPP for pandemic emergency purchase programme. The latest observations are for 6 November 2025.02468102019202120232025APP and PEPPLonger-term credit operations (> 3m)Short-term credit operations (<= 3m)Other assets06/11/2025-10123452019202120232025DFR17/11/25Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu ©2Sources: Eurostat, September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections and ECB calculations.Note: The latest observations are for the third quarter of 2025.HICP inflationInflation developmentsSources: Eurostat, September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections and ECB calculations.Note: The latest observations are for the third quarter of 2025.Energy inflationSources: Eurostat, September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections and ECB calculations.Note: PCCI excluding energy is computed taking the quarterly average of monthly series. The latest observations are for the third quarter of 2025.Non-energy inflation(annual percentage points)(annual percentage points)(annual percentage points)-2024681012Q1 19Q2 20Q3 21Q4 22Q1 24Q2 25Q3 25-20-1001020304050Q1 19Q2 20Q3 21Q4 22Q1 24Q2 25Q3 250123456789Q1 19Q2 20Q3 21Q4 22Q1 24Q2 25Non-energy inflationPCCI excluding energyQ3 25Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu ©3Inflation developments and outlookSource: September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area.Notes: The latest observations are for 2024. The cut-off date of the September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections was 15 August 2025.HICP inflation – annual averagesSource: September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area.Notes: The latest observations are for the fourth quarter of 2024. The cut-off date of the September 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections was 15 August 2025.HICP inflation – Q4 on Q4 profileQ4 2021Q4 2022Q4 2023Q4 2024Q4 2025Q4 2026Q4 2027HICP inflation4.610.02.72.22.01.72.0HICP energy inflation25.733.9-9.8-2.2-1.70.22.9HICP excl. energy inflation2.47.04.42.72.31.82.0(Q4-on-Q4 percentage changes)September 2025 projections(annual percentage changes)(Q4-on-Q4 percentage changes)2021202220232024202520262027HICP inflation2.68.45.42.42.11.71.9HICP energy inflation13.037.0-2.0-2.2-1.6-1.12.4HICP excl. energy inflation1.55.16.32.92.52.01.9Septemb