IMF-货币政策向家庭信贷的传导：来自乌干达信贷登记数据的证据（英）

Monetary Policy Transmission to Household Credit: Evidence from Uganda’s Credit Registry Data Marina Conesa Martinez, Elizabeth Kasekende, Nan Li, Adam Mugume, Samuel Musoke, Cedric Okou, Andrea Presbitero WP/25/242 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 NOV © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/242 IMF Working Paper Research Department Monetary Policy Transmission to Household Credit: Evidence from Uganda’s Credit Registry Data Prepared by Marina Conesa Martinez, Elizabeth Kasekende, Nan Li, Adam Mugume, Samuel Musoke, Cedric Okou, and Andrea Presbitero. Authorized for distribution by Petia Topalova November 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper examines the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in developing countries using loan-level data from Uganda’s credit registry. We analyze more than 632,000 household loans issued by all commercial banks between 2017 and 2023, a period marked by significant policy rate fluctuations. We find that household credit, which accounts for over 50 percent of new loan accounts, responds to monetary policy: rate hikes are followed by higher lending rates and reduced loan size and maturity. Controlling for credit demand with time-varying borrower-group fixed effects, we find stronger transmission among banks with lower liquidity and capital, and those holding more government securities. The effects are more pronounced for fixed-rate loans than for floating-rate loans. In general, our results support the presence of a bank lending channel in Uganda, similar to what is observed in more advanced economies. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Conesa et al. (2025) JEL Classification Numbers: E42, E44, E52, E58, G21, G28 Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission; Credit Registry; Bank Lending Channel; Bank Credit; Developing Countries Author’s E-Mail Address: conesa.martinez.marina@gmail.com, ekasekende@bou.or.ug, nli@imf.org, amugume@bou.or.ug, snmusoke@bou.or.ug, cokou@imf.org, apresbitero@imf.org IMF WORKING PAPERS Monetary Policy Transmission to Household Credit: Evidence from Uganda’s Credit Registry Data INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 WORKING PAPERS Monetary Policy Transmission to Household Credit: Evidence from Uganda’s Credit Registry Data Prepared by Marina Conesa Martinez, Elizabeth Kasekende, Nan Li, Adam Mugume, Samuel Musoke, Cedric Okou, and Andrea Presbitero.1 1 Marina Conesa Martinez, Nan Li, Cedric Okou, and Andrea Presbitero: International Monetary Fund; Elizabeth Kasekende, Ada