IMF-选举的重要性：资本流动与政治周期（英）

Elections Matter: Capital Flows and Political Cycles Maria Arakelyan and Tatiana Evdokimova WP/25/243 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 NOV © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/243IMF Working Paper Institute for Capacity Development Elections Matter: Capital Flows and Political Cycles Prepared by Maria Arakelyan and Tatiana Evdokimova* Authorized for distribution by Natan Epstein November 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper contributes to the relatively limited literature on the impact of political uncertainty on international capital flows to emerging market economies. We incorporate elections as a proxy for political uncertainty into a standard push-pull framework for analyzing capital flows. Using quarterly data for a panel of 38 emerging market economies from 1990 to 2020, we show that periods surrounding elections are associated with a decline in gross private capital inflows. This adverse impact is larger and more persistent when uncertainty extends beyond the election period, for example in the context of uncertain policy priorities following incumbent’s loss. By contrast, higher levels of overall political stability appear to mitigate these adverse effects. We also find evidence that stronger institutions, as reflected in indicators such as regulatory quality and rule of law, help to mitigate the adverse effects of political uncertainty on capital flows. The results remain robust across a range of alternative specifications, including controls for standard economic drivers of capital flows, election characteristics, and model assumptions. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Maria Arakelyan and Tatiana Evdokimova (2025). Capital Flows and Political Cycles. IMF Working Paper 25/243. JEL Classification Numbers: F41, F21, F32, F50, D72, C33 Keywords: Capital flows; political cycles; uncertainty; emerging markets; push and pull factors Author’s E-Mail Address: arakelyan.maria@outlook.com; tevdokimova@imf.org *The authors thank Patrick A. Imam (IMF), Povilas Lastauskas (IMF), Yan Carriere-Swallow (IMF), José Federico GeliManzano (IMF), Bertrand Candelon and paticipants of the ICD research seminar for their valuable comments.WORKING PAPERS Elections Matter: Capital Flows and Political Cycles Prepared by Maria Arakelyan and Tatiana Evdokimova IMF WORKING PAPERS Elections Matter: Capital Flows and Election Cycles INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 Contents 1. Introduction .....................................................