2025年全球人工智能影响报告（英）

* The authors would like to thank Abdullah AlHassan, Botir Baltabaev, Benjamin Carton, Gabriela Conde, Era Dabla-Norris,Florence Jaumotte, Kenneth H Kang, Kristina Kostial, Dirk Muir, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, Rafael Portillo, John Ralyea, AlexandreBalduino Sollaci, Antonio Spilimbergo, Cindy Xu, and IMF seminar participants for useful comments and suggestions. All remainingerrors are the authors’ responsibility.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/76IMF Working Paper Strategy Policy and Review, and Research Department The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap Prepared by Eugenio Cerutti, Antonio Garcia Pascual, Yosuke Kido, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Marina M. Tavares, and Philippe Wingender* Authorized for distribution by Kenneth H Kang and Antonio Spilimbergo April 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper examines the uneven global impact of AI, highlighting how its effects will be a function of (i) countries’ sectoral exposure to AI, (ii) their preparedness to integrate these technologies into their economies, and (iii) their access to essential data and technologies. We feed these three aspects into a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of the global economy and show that AI will exacerbate cross-country income inequality, disproportionately benefiting advanced economies. Indeed, the estimated growth impact in advanced economies could be more than double that in low-income countries. While improvements in AI preparedness and access can mitigate these disparities, they are unlikely to fully offset them. Moreover, the AI-driven productivity gains could reduce the traditional role of exchange rate adjustments due to AI’s large impact in the non-tradable sector—a mechanism akin to an inverse Balassa-Samuelson effect. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Cerutti, E., A. Garcia Pascual, Y. Kido, L. Li, G. Melina, M. M. Tavares and P. Wingender “The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap” IMF Working Paper No. 25/76, April 2025. JEL Classification Numbers: F0, O30, O33 Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Productivity; Multi-Region DSGE Model Author’s E-Mail Address: ecerutti@imf.org, agarciapascual@imf.org, ykido@imf.org, lli4@imf.org, gmelina@imf.org, mmendestavares@imf.org, pwingender@imf.org ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution WORKING PAPERS The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap Prepared by Eugenio Cerutti, Antonio Garcia Pascual, Yosuke Kido, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Marina M. Tavares, and Philippe Wingender1 1 The authors would like to thank Abdullah AlHassan, Botir Baltabaev, Benjamin Carton, Gabriela Conde, Era Dabla-Norris, Florence Jaumotte, Kenneth H Kang, Kristina Kostial, Dirk Muir, Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, Rafael Portillo, John Ralyea, Alexa