世界银行-镍、钢铁和汽车：印尼的出口禁令和国内附加值（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11249Nickel, Steel and CarsExport Ban and Domestic Value-Added in IndonesiaHiau Looi KeeEnze XieDevelopment Economics Development Research GroupNovember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11249Nickel is essential for producing iron and steel. Endowed with the world’s largest reserve, Indonesia banned nickel exports in 2014 to promote industrialization. This paper studies the impacts of the export ban on downstream steel-using industries. A three-sector model shows that, while the export ban could raise the domestic value-added ratio (DVAR) in exports, the entry of smaller, inefficient firms led to aggregate efficiency losses downstream. Firm-level evidence confirms higher DVAR, smaller firm size, and larger entrant shares in downstream industries post the export ban. A field mission validated these results, while noting the continued heavy reliance on imported steel.This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at hlkee@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. POLICYRESEARCH WORKING PAPERSTRANSPARENTANALYSISNickel, Steel and Cars: Export Ban and Domestic Value-Added inIndonesia *Hiau Looi KEE†World BankEnze XIE‡Zhejiang UniversityKeywords: Export ban, domestic value-added in exports, industrial policy, monopsony, critical mineral, efficiency loss.JEL Codes: F13, F14, F52, L13, L52*We thank Csilla Lakatos, Lars Moller, Habib Rab, Daria Taglioni and participants at the Online Australasian Seminarin International Economics (OASIS), the World Bank Indonesia Country Office and DECTI Seminars, and the PIIE LunchSeminar, for valuable c