评估巴拉圭随机气候冲击的宏观经济影响（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11259Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stochastic Climate Shocks in ParaguayHeather RuberlPui Shen YoongDiego CastilloBrent BoehlertEconomic Policy Global DepartmentNovember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11259This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of climate shocks in Paraguay, a small and open agricultural exporter that is highly exposed to droughts and floods. Utilizing a modified version of the World Bank’s Mac-ro-Fiscal Model, the analysis integrates stochastic climate shocks drawn from external biophysical models to assess the impacts of extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods on agriculture and livestock pro-duction and labor productivity in Paraguay. The findings reveal significant vulnerabilities in agricultural outputs and exports across a range of climate scenarios. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis across different climate scenarios ranging from mild to severe and quantifies the range of potential impacts on key economic indicators.This paper is a product of the Economic Policy Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at psyoong@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERSTRANSPARENTANALYSISAssessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stochastic Climate Shocks in ParaguayHeather Ruberl1, Pui Shen Yoong2, Diego Castillo3, and Brent Boehlert41,2World Bank∗3,4Industrial Economics, IncorporatedJEL Classification: C10, C50, E37, Q54Keywords: Paraguay; macro-structural model; economic modeling, droughts, floods, heatwaves, cli-mate change∗World Bank Economic Policy Department. This paper was produced unde