结构市下的再平衡：估值与盈利的赛跑

证券研究报告结构市场下的再平衡：估值与盈利的赛跑分析师：邓宇林、包承超、周长民请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明2025年11月03日市场估值整体偏高，但情绪尚未高涨数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：证券化率接近100%时，大约对应市场顶点，2025年三季度的证券化率约95%图：除2015年外，ERP触及2倍标准差时，大多对应市场的顶点，当前已突破2倍标准差数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：融资余额占A股流通市值接近2.5%时，大概率对应市场的阶段顶点图：融资买入额占A股成交额上升至11%左右时，大概率对应市场的阶段顶点数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：沪深300期权的Put/Call Ratio并未升至极值位置，市场情绪并不算极致过热图：科创50期权的Put/Call Ratio从极值位置下降，市场同步回调数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：TMT成交额占比和相对全A走势图：茅指数成交额占比和相对全A走势数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：TMT换手率高点对应TMT收盘价阶段性高点图：电力设备换手率高点对应电力设备收盘价阶段性高点数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：食品饮料换手率和收盘价图：家用电器换手率和收盘价数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：GLMSDI-全A数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：GLMSDI-科创50数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：GLMSDI-通信数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：GLMSDI-电力设备数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：GLMSDI-医药生物数据来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所图：GLMSDI-行业其他煤炭石油石化钢铁有色金属基础化工建筑材料建筑装饰交通运输机械设备电力设备汽车家用电器轻工制造国防军工环保社会服务商贸零售纺织服饰美容护理食品饮料农林牧渔医药生物银行非银金融房地产电子计算机 传媒通信公用事业2025-10-3152%52%52%48%48%48%45%34%50%54%76%63%70%59%56%62%55%64%52%58%46%45%51%56%68%42%42%61%35%41%50%57%55%50%47%39%52%48%29%64%2025-10-2449%64%56%45%41%41%37%42%46%59%97%75%61%57%43%61%77%66%50%45%43%43%45%50%65%31%31%54%50%28%48%38%95%62%60%49%36%36%36%73%2025-10-1727%46%41%34%28%25%25%30%38%48%95%40%64%52%24%37%42%52%24%32%21%15%22%17%38%13%12%44%30%24%34%17%62%27%40%22%17%10%12%65%2025-10-1042%36%56%60%49%42%47%70%68%60%92%65%86%81%48%48%53%38%47%67%48%26%35%38%48%12%21%38%29%15%31%17%7%54%50%51%26%21%26%67%2025-09-3038%32%48%52%44%38%50%74%63%41%32%29%57%66%38%28%38%24%42%64%48%29%28%37%32%14%18%25%26%9%19%17%5%28%48%65%36%28%37%37%2025-09-2631%28%43%42%35%30%50%68%53%33%41%27%23%41%27%28%30%23%38%54%44%24%22%24%26%12%16%27%23%8%17%13%10%9%39%58%22%27%34%33%2025-09-1940%38%49%50%47%41%51%72%64%44%78%27%41%53%34%42%41%47%47%57%50%42%41%20%26%51%39%36%33%20%27%20%0%11%73%63%28%32%49%30%2025-09-1251%54%60%63%54%50%72%82%73%50%41%40%68%79%51%56%53%44%50%71%52%38%54%17%50%62%66%46%55%57%55%31%12%37%86%63%38%46%57%59%2025-09-0545%51%55%55%48%44%69%71%70%44%27%29%25%70%51%40%36%34%46%70%50%47%50%12%38%59%61%55%52%65%35%31%14%28%42%57%32%36%43%45%2025-08-2957%66%73%73%66%61%85%96%82%54%16%38%41%83%53%42%37%40%56%63%63%65%48%72%43%65%68%32%52%69%49%35%12%85%42%88%68%59%78%39%2025-08-2286%76%81%89%89%89%98%94%91%70%51%79%52%86%85%85%74%73%90%90%93%89%86%90%88%84%86%83%85%90%82%78%21%96%80%98%94%90%95%74%2025-08-1571%50%65%76%79%77%94%76%81%57%56%63%52%88%68%60%50%45%83%79%79%80%63%74%62%62%46%54%70%46%50%76%12%93%53%92%82%57%81%39%2025-08-0873%45%58%71%73%75%71%68%68%61%75%73%95%87%74%67%72%60%85%68%73%73%64%90%76%59%48%75%79%56%80%85%24%59%49%76%68%61%70%56%2025-08-0163%42%51%68%64%65%72%74%66%48%59%38%82%57%62%71%61%42%69%57%54%59%56%65%61%61%52%54%52%41%64%93%7%60%39%68%72%70%60%36%2025-07-2583%70%79%91%87%86%95%94%90%79%100%56%95%91%81%95%85%75%87%85%77%87%73%81%84%87%78%78%76%70%88%93%12%90%92%84%83%76%71%74%2025-07-1877%72%77%82%81%82%86%80%80%75%73%52%89%89%72%84%79%59%80%82%77%79%64%87%78%78%67%67%27%54%74%88%67%90%78%77%87%67%76%71%2025-07-1177%60%70%82%80%79%78%72%80%79%84%60%93%89%72%88%82%64%74%85%62%77%73%86%78%85%73%64%33%50%77