2025年10月全球金融稳定报告（英）

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDGLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORTShifting Ground beneath the Calm2025OCTINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND2025OCTGLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORTShifting Ground beneath the Calm©2025 International Monetary FundCover and Design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions DivisionCataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames: International Monetary Fund.Title: Global financial stability report.Other titles: GFSR | World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2002- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for March 2002.Subjects: LCSH: Capital market—Statistics—Periodicals. | International finance—Forecasting—Periodicals. | Economic stabilization—Periodicals.Classification: LCC HG4523.G557ISBNs: 979-8-22902-318-4 (paper) 979-8-22902-545-5 (ePub) 979-8-22902-543-0 (web PDF)Disclaimer: The Global Financial Stability Report is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report draws out the financial ramifications of economic issues highlighted in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on April 11, 2025. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2025. Global Financial Stability Report: Shifting Ground beneath the Calm. Washington, DC, October.Please send orders to:International Monetary Fund, Publications ServicesPO Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USATel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201publications@IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgeLibrary.IMF.orgAssumptions and Conventions viiFurther Information viiiPreface ixForeword xExecutive Summary xiiIMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, September 2025 xviiChapter 1. Shifting Ground beneath the Calm: Stability Challenges amid Changes in Financial Markets 1Chapter 1 at a Glance 1Introduction 1Financial Market Developments and Asset Valuations 2Financial Conditions Ease, but the Growth-at-Risk Metric Remains Elevated 9Emerging and Frontier Markets 10Sovereign Bond Markets 14Financial Intermediaries 21Corporate Credit Risk 29Policy Recommendations 34Box 1.1. Global Real Estate Update 38Box 1.2. Low Interest Rates in China Could Imperil Bank Profits and Lending 41Box 1.3. Banks and Insurers Are Deepening Ties with the Private Credit Ecosystem 43References 45Chapter 2. Risk and Resilience in the Global Foreign Exchange Market 47Chapter 2 at a Glance 47Introduction 47Macrofinancial Shocks and the Global Foreign Exchange Market: A Conceptual Framework 51The Evolving Landscape of the Global Foreign Exchange Market 53Macrofinancial Uncertainty and FX Trading Dynamics 56Uncertainty Shocks and Stress in Foreign Exchange Markets 59Spillovers of Foreign Exchange Marke