IMF-毛里求斯QPM：毛里求斯银行季度预测模型（英）

Mauritius QPM: A Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Mauritius Marjorie Pampusa, Ashwin Moheeput, Atish Babboo, Rajlukshmee Tengur, Rideema Cunniah, Sharmeen Gariban, Iaroslav Miller, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Valeriu Nalban WP/25/215 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 OCT * The authors comprise Bank of Mauritius staff and the IMF team that has led the Macroframeworks TechnicalAssistance (TA) project on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the Bank of Mauritius(BOM). The TA project has been conducted by ICD since 2022 and was partly funded from the Japan AdministeredAccount for Selected IMF Activities (JSA). The authors greatly appreciate the BOM management for their support tothe FPAS TA project. The authors are also grateful to Andrew Berg, Paul Cashin, Natan Epstein, Mikhail Pranovich,and Felipe Zanna for their continuous feedback and guidance; to Nicolas Aragon (ATI) for his participation in the laterstages of the TA project; to the IMF African Department Mauritius team for their collaboration and support to theFPAS TA project; to participants at the IMF ICD seminar for their helpful comments; and to Mariana Colacelli, WilsonPhiri, Felix Simione and Concha Verdugo Yepes for detailed comments and suggestions. The views expressed in thispaper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Bank of Mauritius, IMF, its ExecutiveBoard, or IMF management.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/215 IMF Working Paper Institute for Capacity Development Mauritius QPM: A Quarterly Projection Model for the Bank of Mauritius Prepared by Marjorie Pampusa, Ashwin Moheeput, Atish Babboo, Rajlukshmee Tengur, Rideema Cunniah, Sharmeen Gariban, Iaroslav Miller, Shalva Mkhatrishvili, Valeriu Nalban* Authorized for distribution by Natan Epstein October 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper presents the Mauritius Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), the semi-structural analytical tool that underpins the modernized Forecasting and Policy Analysis System of the Bank of Mauritius (BOM). The model is designed to capture the salient features of the domestic economy, including key monetary policy transmission channels and the recently introduced flexible inflation targeting framework. Relative to canonical QPM structures, it also incorporates a parsimonious fiscal block and a labor market block, providing key insights on broader macroeconomic dynamics and enriching the policy advice. Th