IMF-新兴市场周期：双资产负债表条件和宏观金融联系（英）

Emerging Market Cycles: Twin-Balance Sheet Conditions and Macro-Financial Linkages Soumya Bhadury, Bhanu Pratap, and Jay Surti WP/25/216 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 OCT ∗ Reserve Bank of India. †Reserve Bank of India. ‡International Monetary Fund. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/216IMF Working Paper Monetary and Capital Markets Department Emerging Market Cycles: Twin-Balance Sheet Conditions and Macro-Financial Linkages Prepared by Soumya Bhadury*, Bhanu Pratap†, and Jay Surti‡ Authorized for distribution by Marina Moretti October 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper empirically examines the dynamic linkages between financial conditions and economic growth across 18 major emerging market economies over the last two decades and the role that fiscal and trade balances play in shaping such associations. Using a reduced-form multivariate autoregressive state-space model, we document two opposing forces – growth-enhancing and growth-inhibiting linkages – that characterize macro-financial dynamics in these countries. Easing of domestic financial conditions is associated with stronger near-term GDP growth, a growth-enhancing link, albeit this acceleration in growth is followed by a tightening of financial conditions that can adversely impact future growth outcomes, a growth-inhibiting link. Both linkages are statistically significant at high frequencies for nearly half of the countries in our sample and appear to be driven by a weak twin-balance sheets condition of high public debt and external imbalances. External factors, notably the global financial cycle, are shown to play a crucial role in amplifying this feedback loop between economic growth and financial conditions. JEL Classification Numbers: C53, E32, E44 Keywords: Macro-financial linkages; emerging markets; twin-deficits; financial conditions; MARSS model; Kalman filter Author’s E-Mail Address: soumyasbhadury@rbi.org.in bhanupratap@rbi.org.in JSurti@imf.org WORKING PAPERS Emerging Market Cycles: Twin-Balance Sheet Conditions and Macro-Financial Linkages Prepared by Soumya Bhadury, Bhanu Pratap, and Jay S. Surti1 1 The authors gratefully acknowledge feedback and comments from Viral Acharya, Rodrigo Alfaro, Thorsten Beck, Makram El-Shogi, and seminar participants at the 7th HenU-INFER Workshop on Applied Macroeconomics held at Henan University, Henan, China. The authors also gratefully acknowledge assistance from Sruti Tiwari. The views express