联合国贸易发展委员会-濒临崩溃：贸易、金融与全球经济的重塑（英）

On the brinkTrade, finance and the reshaping of the global economy Trade and Development Report 2025 (Advance preview)© UNCTAD, human-rendered illustration supported by artificial intelligence1. Setting the stage A century after the Great Depression, tariffs have once again taken centre stage in global policy debates. Rising trade barriers and geopolitical tensions are straining multilateral norms and weighing on global economic prospects.Global output growth continues to lag behind the pre-pandemic trend. Despite momentary resilience in early 2025, growth momentum remains fragile and clouded by uncertainty. Investor anxiety has boosted financial markets, but not productive investment.Faltering global growth shows no signs of picking up in the near termGlobal output growth(Percentage)Source: Advanced estimates ahead of the release of Trade and Development Report 2025 (forthcoming). Note: Output growth is based on gross domestic product (GDP) at constant 2015 prices (market exchange rates). The yellow dashed lines denote average annual growth rates for 2004–2007, 2011–2019 and 2023–2026. a Estimate. b Projection.-4-2246820052010201520202025a 2026b2. The trade front Pre-tariff frontloading and AI-related investment temporarily lifted merchandise trade in late 2024 and early 2025. World trade expanded by around 4% in the first half of 2025, though underlying growth was closer to 2.5–3% once temporary factors are excluded.As tariffs take hold and frontloading fades, trade could slow markedly into 2026. Low-income economies and small enterprises are most exposed, as limited access to finance and persistent uncertainty about market access hamper long-term planning and investment. Tariff anticipation triggered a short-lived boost in world trade in early 2025(Index numbers, average 2021=100)Source: World Trade Monitor database of the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Note: Trade flows are in real terms and seasonally adjusted.20202021202220232024202580100120137,6World tradeImports of theUnited States3. The finance connection As value chains evolve, the financialization of trade deepens. Over 90% of world trade depends on the infrastructure of global finance. Monetary policies, exchange rate movements and investor sentiment transmit quickly through the global financial system, shaping trade flows and industrial production.The Trade and Development Report 2025 highlights how the financial system both enables and constrains trade. Ignoring these financial linkages risks policy blind spots in addressing trade turbulence.Trade in financial timesMonthly global financial cycle and detrended world trade volumes(Standard deviations)Source: UNCTAD based on an updated version of Miranda-Agrippino and Rey (2020) and CPB World Trade Monitor.Note: The global financial cycle is a statistical construct that captures common fluctuations in financial activity based on more than 800 asset prices relating to credit conditions, risk-taking, capita