Deutsche Bank-FX Blog What is driving high-frequency FX-118361930

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 21/10/2025 11:05:35 GMTDistributed on: 21/10/2025 11:05:35 GMT21 October 2025Deutsche BankResearch Global Foreign Exchange FX Blog Date Main highlights of the High-Frequency monitor:nWhile US equities remain the primary driver of high-frequency FX, their direct influence on the number of affected currencies, along with that of Copper and US rates, has considerably decreased since last week. EM equities' and oil's influence, however, remains unchanged.nUSD/CHF, USD/ZAR, and AUD/JPY are highly sensitive to various asset classes. USD/CHF's high-frequency movements are currently driven by US and EM equities and US rates. USD/ZAR is influenced by US and EM equities and Copper, while AUD/JPY is driven by AU, US, and EM equities.nOver the past three months, AUD/JPY has consistently shown a driving relationship with US and EM equities on more than 50% of days. Meanwhile, USD/ZAR exhibits a strong inverse correlation with Copper, US equities, and EM equities.nBitcoin's primary drivers are US and EM equities and oil. It shows its strongest correlations with VIX, US, and EM equities. Meanwhile, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, USD/SGD, USD/TRY, and gold currently act as drivers of other asset classes, rather than being driven by them.nWe also plot minimum spanning trees that identify assets that exert significant influence on multiple assets based on correlation. Based on our correlation-based Minimum Spanning Trees (MSTs), VIX is the primary contemporaneous driver of high-frequency FX movements.Figure 1, Figure 3 and Figure 13 look at causality in FX. Figure 1 shows the currencies whose moves can be statistically predicted by other asset classes. Figure 3 ranks the drivers of FX (highest to lowest number of currencies, driven by a given asset). Figure 13 shows the relative importance of each asset in driving a given currency in the recent period. Figure 11 looks at contemporaneous correlations. We show the top 3 correlations between FX pairs and other asset classes. Figure 12 shows intra-FX correlations. We use Granger causality tests to measure causality. All statistics measured at 5-minute frequency. For further details, please see our updated methodology. For a summary of our FX quant tools, please also see DB FX research quant tools.Rohini Grover, Ph.D.Strategist+44-20-75475907Christabel CharlesResearch AnalystDeutsche Bank AGIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.What is driving high-frequency FX?21 October 2025FX BlogPage 2Deutsche Bank AGFigure 1: Significant connections from assets to currencies# of conn. from other assets Assets driving currencies(Over last 4 weeks)(Over last 4 weeks)6M historySince '16USDCHF3US EQ,US RATE,EM EQ58%68%USDZAR3US EQ,COPPER,EM EQ77%83%AUDJPY3AU EQ,US EQ,EM EQ9%24%XBTUSD3US EQ,OIL,EM EQ70%92%GBPUSD2US EQ,