UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy _3Q25 Earnings Brief October 23_ Simonds-118439794

ab23 October 2025Global ResearchUS Equity Strategy3Q25 Earnings Brief: October 2322.5% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 3Q expectations are for revenues to grow 6.4% and EPS by 8.4%. Projected EPS growth among groups varies significantly, as shown below (a blend of consensus estimates and reported results where available): Expected EPS Growth YoY
TECH+: 17.7%
Financials: 20.9%
Non-Cyclicals: -4.2%
Cyclicals ex-Energy: 3.2%
Energy: -6.7%The 6 largest TECH+ companies are expected to outgrow the rest of the market as a group (EPS growth 16.7% vs. 6.1%), though forecasts vary for each company (MSFT: 11.1%, META: 10.2%, GOOG: 6.1%, NVDA: 51.9%, AAPL: 5.1%, AMZN: 14.2%).Earnings are beating estimates by 6.4% in aggregate so far, with 82% of companies so far topping projections. EPS is on pace for 10.0%, assuming the historical trend of estimate revisions through the end of reporting season.Over the next 5 trading days, 138 companies representing 27.4% of the S&P 500's market cap will report results, including Intel, Blackstone, Procter & Gamble, Visa, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta.This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 17. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Equity StrategyAmericasSean SimondsStrategistsean.simonds@ubs.com+1-212-713 2851Maxwell Grinacoff, CFAStrategistmaxwell.grinacoff@ubs.com+1-212-713 3892Andrew GarthwaiteStrategistandrew.garthwaite@ubs.com+44-20-7567 4343Gerry FowlerStrategistgerry.fowler@ubs.com+44-20-7567 5490US Equity Strategy 23 October 2025ab 2US Equity StrategyUBS ResearchS&P 500Figure 1: S&P 500 EPS Growth 8.914.310.611.53Q244Q241Q252Q253Q25E%Current ConsensusForecast8.4Expected Final ReportedGrowth10.0Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Figure 2: S&P 500 EPS Growth - Impact from TECH+6.56.88.16.94.53Q244Q241Q252Q25E3Q25E%Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Note: Impact calculated as difference in EPS growth between S&P 500 and S&P 500 ex-TECH+Expected 3Q EPS Growth is now 10.0% YoY TECH+ has had an outsized impact on S&P 500 EPS growth over the past yearUS Equity Strategy 23 October 2025ab 3S&P 500 Figure 3: 3Q25 Earnings Dashboard – S&P 500Weighted Growth YoY (%)RevenueMarginsEarningsBuybacksEPSS&P 5006.40.97.31.18.4TECH+13.63.417.00.717.7Big 6 TECH+15.80.216.00.716.7Rest of TECH+10.68.719.30.619.9Cyclicals2.6-4.6-2.02.80.8Cyclicals ex-Energy4.0-5.0-1.04.23.2Energy-1.1-4.2-5.4-1.4-6.7Materials4.53.78.2-0.47.8Industrials5.0-4.40.66.87.4Industrials ex-BA4.1-8.0-3.81.6-2.3Discretionary ex-AMZN2.8-7.8-5.02.7-2.3Non-Cyclicals6.0-10.8-4.80.6-4.2Staples3.8-5.3-1.50.